FXUS64 KEWX 062332
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
532 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHIFTING SFC
WINDS TO THE NE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 5KTS OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO IFR AT KAUS WITH KSAT AND KSSF
BECOMING IFR BY 02-03Z. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT
I-35 SITES AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL SPREAD TO KDRT BY 09-11Z. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE THE LOW CEILINGS IMPROVE
TO VFR AT KDRT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY
EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN AOB 2KFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL LAYER HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED WITH THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING-UP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE'RE SETTING-UP NICELY FOR A FOG EVENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER. A WEAK FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MIX THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE FOG. WE'LL SEE SOME SUN MONDAY AFTER THE
FOG DIMINISHES...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAS SHOWN A ROUND OF CONVECTION
FIRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT) LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE
NAM12 LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THAT FORECAST...SO WE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. FOG/RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM UP
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF WEDNESDAY'S FRONT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT SCENARIO SETTING-UP LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS PROGRESSION OF FROPA FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT WILL
REPEAT AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST...QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LOW EXCEPT FOR OUR COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 42 54 47 68 / 40 - 10 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 39 54 46 72 / 50 - 20 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 44 54 47 72 / 40 - 20 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 52 46 65 / 20 0 - 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 39 60 52 73 / 0 - - 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 40 53 47 66 / 40 - 10 40 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 41 57 48 71 / - - 10 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 40 53 49 69 / 50 - 20 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 45 56 53 65 / 60 20 20 50 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 43 56 48 69 / 30 - 20 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 57 44 56 49 72 / 30 - 20 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/25
