FXUS64 KHGX 021029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS MOVING OFF TO THE E/NE...THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LOW ITSELF REMAINS OVER THE STATE. LIGHT PCPN/CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD STILL HAVE SOME REACH INTO THE NOR-
THERN CWA THIS MORNING SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF LOW POPS THERE
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD BE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS AFTN. 

HOWEVER THIS RESPITE TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST
A DECENT SHOT OF WINTER WX FOR SE TX ON FRI. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF SNOW (WITH ACCUMULATIONS!)
AS THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM HELPS DRAW A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE STRONGEST CAA WITH THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THU AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH ALSO
BEGINS TO BUILD SWD INTO THE STATE. ALOFT...THE LINGERING TROFFI-
NESS WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OUT WEST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO DIG/MOVE TO
THE EAST AOA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...IT
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AND
THEN THE FUN BEGINS FOR FRI. A DEEP COLD LAYER WITH TEMPS FALLING
TO AT/BELOW FREEZING COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OR
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW STARTING OVER OUR NWRN AREAS EARLY FRI MORNING
THEN PERHAPS REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX FOR
MOST OF THE CWA FRI EVENING/NIGHT AS TEMPS PLUMMET TO AT/NEAR 32F.
THE BEAR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE FCST...ANOTHER QUICK STRIKE UPPER TROF PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH SE TX ON SUN AND THEN ANOTHER FOR LATE TUES. THIS
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE MENTION OF LOWISH POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      54  35  54  37  38 /  20  10  10  20  40 
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  37  56  41  43 /  10  10  10  20  40 
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  43  58  46  49 /  10  10  10  20  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS 
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$