FXUS64 KLUB 260513
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CENTRAL PLAINS PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PROPAGATING OVER THE MID WEST. IN SPITE OF THE
FROPA...THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY ADVECTION IN SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE NOW
OVER THE PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND KANSAS. THUS DESPITE
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS...A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT/S VERY
COLD READINGS /AS LOW AS 11 DEGREES AT MULESHOE/ SHOULD BE AVOIDED
GIVEN MODEST/RELATIVE MOISTENING. HOWEVER CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING REMAIN LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FREEZE FOR MOST
LOCATION ON THE CAPROCK BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
TODAY/S FRONT WILL HAVE NO LASTING IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD EAST OF A
FOUR CORNERS UA RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED SLOW MODERATION
OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY MODEL SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ONLY A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
BEFORE EXITING ON SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SPLIT STREAM FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NOW ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD ALSO LEND TO A WARMER SATURDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE PATH OF THE
SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY. HOWEVER...AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A CUT OFF LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. DESPITE THERE BEING A HIGHER
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN TODAYS MODEL RUNS...MORE MEMBERS OF THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...A CUT OFF LOW IS DEPICTED IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE NAM MODEL RUN. POPS REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED LIFT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS
SHOW SNOW TO BE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AND A RAIN OR SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...ANY LOCATION CANNOT BE
PINNED DOWN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF A CONSISTENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH MID WEEK
THOUGH STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 64 27 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 27 66 31 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 25 65 32 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 22 65 31 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 24 65 33 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 23 63 32 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 24 65 31 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 32 69 35 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 26 66 37 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 33 67 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
