FXUS64 KMEG 010544
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
UPDATE...
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THUS...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COLDEST RURAL SPOTS NEAR TN RIVER WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID
20S AND PERHAPS LOWER 20S. KEPT PATCHY FOG MENTION NEAR TN
RIVER...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT OF OCCURRENCE AS AIR IS VERY DRY.
FROST FORMATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
AT MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE HEADING EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 50 WITH SOME 40S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA.
BELLES
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHATEVER
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. SOIL
MOISTURE IS A BIT UP DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
FOG OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT SINCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SOME
RETURN FLOW LATER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
OCCURRING.
LITTLE TO MENTION FOR TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THOUGH MONDAY)...
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF.
HAVE USED BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES....WITH THE NAM WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW. USING THE GFS/ECMWF AS GUIDE...BELIEVE SURFACE LOW
STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION TAKING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
OUR EAST. FOCUS DOES SHIFT TO POLAR JET WHICH DIPS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY. QUESTION IS DOES ENOUGH
COLD AIR WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SNOW OR MIX FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS? GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION STAYS
RAIN...POSSIBLE SOME MIX AT THE END. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WITH MIX ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SUGGESTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION (SNOW/RAIN) OVER MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DRY SINCE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN GFS
MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS POLAR
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE US. RETURN
FLOW ON MONDAY COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...THEREFORE HAVE KEEP FORECAST DRY.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. FOR OVERNIGHT...KEPT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT TAF SITES
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 02/06Z AND MENTIONED VCSH ONLY AT TUP FOR 02/05Z
AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH ONSET OF RAIN. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 4-7 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 57 43 50 / 0 0 50 80
MKL 29 56 39 48 / 0 0 30 80
JBR 32 56 38 45 / 0 0 30 80
TUP 32 57 43 52 / 0 10 60 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
