FXUS61 KMHX 040920
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
415 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. WET LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOVE ALONG THE
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY STREAMING IN FROM SW AS NEXT UPR TROF DROPS INTO
PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY. COOLER AIR
MASS AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN MID-UPR 50S.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING IN RAIN LATE AFTN AND HELD OFF
POPS UNTIL AFTER 6 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WET PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT EVENING AS UPR TROF
WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM W-SW WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFFSHORE...AND MOVING NE. USED GFS/NAM/ECMWF BLEND DURING
PERIOD. SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR INCREASING POP TREND THIS EVENING...OTRW
CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT AND SAT. LOWERED QPF SOMEWHAT
TO REFLECT MODEL TRENDS. LINGERING CHC POPS...HIGHEST NRN
SECTIONS...SAT EVE AS WRAP-AROUND MSTR EXITS. NAM INDICATES PSBL
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PCPN AS EVENT ENDS BUT APPEARS TO BE COLD
AIR CHASING MSTR WHICH IS RARE EVENT FOR ERN NC...THUS KEPT AS ALL
RAIN FOR NOW. NO MAJOR CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS...LOOK
REASONABLE WITH MOS BLEND.
DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE PSBL PCPN MON WITH COASTAL TROF AND SHRT
WVS IN SW FLOW...BUT LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PCPN OFF COAST SO NO CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FCST. ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVES NW OF AREA WED WITH WARM
FRONT AND COLD FRONT AFFECTING ERN NC SIMILAR TO SYSTEM PAST WED/WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2AM FRI...VFR CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE W. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHALLOW FOG TO FORM THRU 12Z WITH DAMP GROUND FROM RECENT
RAINS...LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY THIN CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH MODEST NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SUSPECT THIS
WILL PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUE. HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN FROM THE GOMEX TODAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT.
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COMPLEX LOW PRES
FORMS OFF THE SE COAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE INTO SAT AS LOW PRES SKIRTS BY THE OUTER
BANKS. AT THIS POINT AT LEAST IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TONITE
THRU SAT WITH OCCN MVFR/IFR VSBYS ESP IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN POCKETS.
PRECIP MOVES OUT SAT NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY SUN AS HIGH PRES
REBUILDS FROM THE W. GENERALLY VFR THRU EARLY WEEK WITH HIGH PRES.
NEXT SYSTEM INCREASES CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND LOWER FLIGHT RULES INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 230AM FRI...LINGERING S/SE SWELL FROM THE WED/WED NIGHT SYSTEM
IS KEEPING SEAS RIGHT AROUND THE SMALL CRAFT 6FT LEVEL MAINLY FOR
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WILL HANG ONTO THAT ADVISORY THRU 12Z. OTHERWISE A MINI SURGE OF
10-20KT NLY WINDS IS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS BEHIND A WEAK SFC
TROF PUSHING OFFSHORE. EXPECT THIS TO COME DOWN MAINLY TO 5-15KT FOR
MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS JUST N OF THE
REGION.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDING AN ELONGATED TROF MOVING THRU
THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY WILL LIKELY SPARK SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES
IN THE GOMEX AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING JUST OFF THE OBX TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING. THE 04/00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A WEST OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND HAVE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/SREF/ECMWF AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLEND FOR THE EVENT. THIS BRINGS IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NLY WINDS AND SEAS TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE SCA NW WINDS DEVELOP ALL WATERS TOMORROW EVENING
AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES JUST OFF THE COAST. THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING
GALES ESP NORTH OF OCRACOKE TOMORROW EVENING AND WHILE IT APPEARS TO
BE A BIT OF A STRONG OUTLIER...WITH GOOD CAA/MIXING EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEARS FEASIBLE. SHORT PERIOD
NLY WIND WAVES BUILD TO 6-10FT FOR EXPOSED NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH MUCH SMALLER SEAS NEAR SOUTH FACING BEACHES.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRES NOSES IN FROM THE NW THEN N OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED
GRIDS WITH NEXT SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS AROUND MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW
