FXUS64 KLZK 040523
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1122 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...
MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL BECOME NORTH AROUND 8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE FOUR SOUTHERN SITES...SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN
WEST TEXAS. EVEN SO...THE SKY REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THIS WAS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM.
KEPT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COME UP A BIT...AND DEWPOINTS
MAY ACTUALLY DROP A LITTLE. PUT IN SOME FOG FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL MORNING.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. (46)
AVIATION...
MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL BECOME NORTH AROUND 8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. ACROSS THE FOUR SOUTHERN SITES...SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 110 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON GIVES A GREAT PICTURE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/OR
EVEN A SNOWFLAKE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE ELSE.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE COLD. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND CLOUDS DECREASING FRIDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS OF THE NORTH A LITTLE
COLDER.
AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND THE HIGH MOVES EAST. BY LATE SUNDAY...A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING UP AHEAD OF IT. DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH TO THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. COULD BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NE OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST MON
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES TUE. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...THEN LIFT NE AND STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASE TUE NIGHT...AND LINGER INTO WED. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING OVER TO WINTRY PRECIP WED AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO MANY DETAILS REGARDING PRECIP TYPE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF THIS MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A RA/SN MIX FOR NOW ACROSS NRN AND WRN
COUNTIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 25 41 22 46 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 30 42 22 51 / 10 10 20 10
HARRISON AR 20 37 15 44 / 0 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 27 42 21 48 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 28 44 23 46 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 31 44 26 48 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 26 42 18 51 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 21 40 16 46 / 0 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 27 43 24 47 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 30 43 25 45 / 10 10 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 42 17 49 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 27 44 21 44 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 29 44 26 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
