FXUS64 KMEG 221739
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SOME SPOTS.
WILL KEEP FREEZING FOG ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 8 AM AS SCHEDULED.
WITH SURFACE HIGH NOW EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BRING MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. BY TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BY
WEDNESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN FOR OUR AREA WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THURSDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND BEGINS TO GET WRAPPED UP. THIS WILL MEAN
MORE RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE SO IT WILL
BE WET BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. CHRISTMAS
DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT PLEASANT AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL.

ARS

AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 23/03Z. EXPECT IFR
CIGS AT KJBR BY 23/06Z...AT KMEM AND KMKL ARND 23/07Z AND KTUP BY
23/11Z AS -RA MOVES INTO THE SITES. MVFR VSBYS ARE FORECAST AFTER
06Z AT KJBR AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST AS RAINFALL RATE
INTENSIFIES. EXPECT THESE VSBYS AT KMEM AND KMKL BTWN 23/13-15Z AND
KTUP BY 23/17Z.

OKULSKI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  59  49  60  53 /  10  70  90  70 
MKL  58  46  57  51 /  10  50  80  60 
JBR  54  46  56  50 /  10  90  90  90 
TUP  60  46  58  50 /   0  20  60  50 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$