FXUS63 KICT 102129 CCA
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE FOG & FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A BROAD PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REBOUNDED 30 TO 40 DEGREES SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT WITH STILL GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION
TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE
MORE DEPOSITION EFFECTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS IN
PLACE. WE DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS SINCE THE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THERE. OTHERWISE...WE
DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS SINCE THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE THE LONGEST.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO WARMER 850MB READINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE OVER THE SNOWPACK THOUGH.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL COMMENCE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
RETURN ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SUNDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING A MAJOR WINTER EVENT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL
HEADACHES.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND MAY EVEN GET
INTO THE 50S FOR NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUNDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INVADE
THE HEARTLAND MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL...AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST
ECMWF RUN HAS SPED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY MONDAY. PREFER A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASSES. COLD AIR SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING BUILDS EAST. HOWEVER...GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUGGEST CHILLY AIR HANGING AROUND INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...DUE TO DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAN THE ECMWF. WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF FOR NOW DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY.
ADK/REC
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PLACED OVER THE CONUS GIVING
KS A NW TO SE FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER OK IS
BRINGING WSW WINDS OVER ALL TAF SITES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 20,000FT ARE POSSIBLE
AT KICT AND KHUT...BUT THOSE WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
DUNTEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 15 38 23 42 / 10 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 10 34 19 37 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 11 36 20 39 / 0 0 10 10
ELDORADO 14 38 22 41 / 10 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 15 41 25 43 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELL 2 27 13 32 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 5 29 15 33 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 4 27 16 32 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 9 32 17 34 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 14 43 25 44 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 14 41 23 42 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 14 40 22 42 / 0 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 14 42 24 43 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
