FXUS61 KCAR 011923
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
223 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND 
SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES 
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. NOT A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION...JUST SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND SREF FOR POP GRIDS. FOR SKY
COVER MOST MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE UNDER-DONE. SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEARED DUE TO DOWN SLOPE BUT
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEST AND NORTH. HAVE
INITIALIZED SKY COVER GRIDS WITH GEM...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THEN MADE MADE SOME MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR WEDNESDAY AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTS FROM WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES EARLIER BUT REMAINDER OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST. FOR QPF HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS TO REFLECT NEW POP GRIDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
AND NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO BEGIN
AS SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS
THAT TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS TRACKING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE AND SHOWING SOME COLDER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AT THE TIME THE PRECIPTATION IS
HEAVIEST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. FOR NOW FORECASTING RAIN WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SNOW MIXED IN. THE SYSTEM IS A QUICK MOVER AND WILL BE
RAPIDLY DEPARTING THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A STORM
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND APPROACHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ON THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE NEW GFS BRINGING THE STORM CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS THE
STORM OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW
GOING LOW CHC SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY BUT
MAY REMAIN MVFR OVER THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY. 
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY IF A STORM NEARBY
TO THE SOUTH COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW. THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS UP NORTH AND VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST
ON SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WIND
GRIDS. FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY WIND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS IS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST. BASED ON
SPECTRAL FROM BUOY LONG PERIOD WAVE CURRENTLY DOMINATES. THIS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING SINCE THE GENERATING FETCH WAS
CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE. WIND WAVE SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE THIS
EVENING THEN AROUND GRADIENT NORTH OF HIGH WEDNESDAY.

A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR THURSDAY FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE LIGHT IN HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MAY REQUIRE ON SCA...WHICH MAY 
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE LOW. 
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER