FXUS62 KMLB 260134
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
830 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...WIND SHIFT ASCD WITH COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THE 
EAST COAST AS OF 01Z...CARRYING ALL REMAINING PRECIP ALONG WITH IT.
MAINLY WNW WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FROPA AND AS SUCH...THERE ISN'T
A PRECIPITOUS DROP IN TEMPS/DEW PTS - ALONG THE LINES OF ABOUT 5F.
READINGS CARE CURRENTLY IN THE L60S NW TO L70S SE...WHERE THE FRONT
RECENTLY PASSED THRU WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT...MODEL RH FIELDS...PARTICULARLY TIME/HGT SECTIONS...SHOW
STRONG (BUT RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED) H90-H50 DRYING WORKING INTO ECFL 
OVER THE NEXT 12-18HR. IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF HIGH LVL 
MOISTURE/CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE BREADTH OF THE GOMEX. THIS BECOMES
EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED FARTHER UPSTREAM FROM OLD MEX WSW INTO THE EPAC
(A HARBINGER OF JUST HOW "DIRTY" OF A FROPA THIS WILL WIND UP BEING)

PLAN TO ADJUST SKY COVER GRIDS UPWARD SOME...AND NUDGE FCST MINS UP
A DEG OR TWO AS WELL...SINCE ADVECTIVE COOLING RATE LOOKS PRETTY 
SLOW...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...AND RADIATIONAL COMPONENT SLIM TO NONE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW-MID LVL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT LINGERING LOW-
MID LVL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING...LEAVING BKN TO OCNLY OVC HIGH CLOUD
DECK ABV FL150.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO W-WNW WILL PUSH HIGHER SEAS WELL 
AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AT 41114
...PLAN TO BRING NEAR SHORE SEAS BACK DOWN TO 3-5FT AND REMOVE THE
CAUTIONARY STMT. SCA FOR 20-60NM LEGS STILL LOOKS FINE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM
     SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

CRISTALDI