FXUS65 KVEF 222317
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
315 PM PST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN 
NEVADA TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VERY 
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE INTERMOUNTAIN 
WEST WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH 
WESTERN NEVADA IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY. THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE 
TO WORK SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEEING ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY SAN 
BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. WINDS DID 
MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS RECORDED GUSTS 
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH A COUPLE OVER 60 MPH. WITH SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN LAS/RNO EXPECT 
WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH 
THE AREA OF CONVECTION AS WINDS MAY END UP BEING EVEN STRONGER IN 
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND 
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME SNOW IN LINCOLN 
COUNTY...THE LOCAL SHERIFF ONLY REPORTED AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH 
NO PROBLEMS ON THE ROADS. DID GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN COUNTY. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DROP 
SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL 
EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN 
LINCOLN COUNTIES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ALL 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THE AFTERNOON. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
OCCUR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. 
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITION WILL REMAIN. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY 
BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. 

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING WILL STILL BE OVER 
THE AREA SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY BEFORE THE PATTERN AGAIN 
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST WAVE COME 
INTO THE COAST AND CALIFORNIA BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE 
SIERRA. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXACT TRACK...THEY TAKE IT SOUTH 
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND OUR WESTERN CWA BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT NEAR 
THE CA-NV-AZ JUNCTURE MONDAY AND THEN EJECTS EAST. HAVE KEPT THE 
BULK OF THE POPS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THEN 
AND DID INCREASE THEM A LITTLE. RIDGING FOLLOWS QUICKLY TUESDAY 
AFTER THE SYSTEMS EXIT BEFORE ANOTHER AND POSSIBLY STRONGER SYSTEM 
COMES INTO THE PICTURE THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NORTHWEST AT THE TIME 
OF THE 00Z TAF THE STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH 
A SURFACE FRONT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AND KEEP BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 
THROUGH THE NIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 
06Z AFTER WHICH TIME THEY AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER EXCEPT 
FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL STILL BE NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO 
THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DAGGETT 
CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL 
PERSIST IN THE SAN BERNARDINO HIGH DESERT AREAS AND IN 
NYE/ESMERALDA/INYO COUNTIES FROM THE NORTH UNTIL ABOUT 07-08Z BEFORE 
SUBSIDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN 
NEVADA AND EXTREME EASTERN CALIFORNIA. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN 
LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION. 
&&

         

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR NVZ017.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR NVZ014.
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CAZ519>522.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CAZ523>526.
&&

$$

GORELOW/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS