FXUS63 KEAX 280926
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE 
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. 
CIRRUS SHIELD MEAGER AND NOT THAT FAR NORTH...SO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY 
CONDITIONS TODAY...AND COLD FRONT BARELY ENTERING NORTHWEST MISSOURI 
BY LATE IN THE DAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES. 

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 
12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE IMPETUS TO THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH SHOULD 
JUST BE CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z 
SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN THE 925MB TO 850MB LEVELS CURRENTLY LURKING OFF 
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TODAY 
AIDED BY RETURN FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE 850MB RIDGE OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING 
NORTHWARD AND MERGING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH FORMING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THETA E ADVECTION TAKES 
PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DRIZZLE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION 
DEEPENS TO ABOVE 850 MB. SO WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TO 
SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WORDING FOR SUNDAY IN 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED NORTHERN STREAM 
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 700MB WAVE IS 
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...WITH DRYING 
QUICKLY TAKING PLACE BY SUNDAY EVENING...SO WILL REMOVE SLIGHT 
CHANCE WORDING FOR THAT PERIOD.  

SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP MONDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO 
THE THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH MAY FINALLY BRING A HARD 
FREEZE TO AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT SEEN ONE THIS FALL. ON MONDAY..WITH 
THIS RIDGE AXIS DROPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...WILL HAVE A WEST WIND 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALTHOUGH NOT THAT STRONG BY 
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE PLAINS TO START A 
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. THUS WITH THIS WARMING AND PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEN AVERAGE FOR 
HIGHS. 

NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...AS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE PATTERN FOR MID WEEK WILL PLAY OUT. SPLIT 
FLOW PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS OFTEN KEEP FORECAST AREA IN THE IN 
BETWEEN STATE OF PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF THE 
REGION...SO DRY FORECAST SEEMS BEST AT THIS POINT. 

PC

&&

.AVIATION...
/1139 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS SATURDAY EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTH.

CUTTER

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE AT KANSAS CITY THROUGH SUNDAY 
MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 28 
DEGREES) WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST NOVEMBER 29TH. THAT DATE STANDS 
AS THE LATEST OCCURRENCE OF 28 DEGREES. HERE ARE THE TOP 5 LATEST 
OCCURRENCES OF 28 DEGREE LOW TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS CITY:

RANK        DATE              YEAR
-----      ------            ------
?          ??????             2009
1          NOV 29             1905
2          NOV 27             1944
3          NOV 26             1902
4          NOV 26             1958
5          NOV 25             1928

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$