FXUS63 KJKL 271741
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTERNOON/...UPDATED
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD TRENDS AND TO REMOVE CLOUDS FROM
THE FORECAST WHERE SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED. WHERE CLOUDS ARE
HOLDING ON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS
WITH TIME.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UPDATED THE FORECAST AROUND 9 AM TO REMOVE PRECIP FROM FIRST
PERIOD...WITH RADAR SHOWING THE LAST OF THE DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES HAVING
LEFT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING BASED ON
OBS/SATELLITE. LOWERED VALLEY TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO
NOTABLE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A VERY SHARP 50H TROF IS PASSING OVR ERN KY AND THE SFC REFLECTION
CONTINUES THE VERY LIGHT PCPN FOR THE AREA GENERALLY EAST OF A
MOREHEAD TO HARLAN LINE. THIS PCPN IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
HOWEVER... SOME SNOW HAS MIXED IN PERIODICALLY BUT THE GROUND IS TOO
WARM FOR ANYTHING TO STICK. WE MAY GET SOME TRACE ACCUMULATIONS FROM
OUR COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS IN OUR ERN COUNTIES AND THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED ACCUM TO 1 INCH IN SOME OF THE HIGHEST MTNS ALONG THE VA
BORDER. HAVE CONTINUED THE PCPN INTO THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF FRI BUT
CONFINED TO OUR MOST ERN COUNTIES WITH SOME AID FROM OROGRAPHICS.
THIS SHOULD END AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MID MORNING AND
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. IN ANY CASE...PCPN THIS
MORNING... EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LIQUID AS THE SUN
TRIES TO BREAK THRU. EXPECT CLEARING BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTING FROM THE WEST TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO
THE MID 40S TODAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT SW WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE
BEGINNINGS OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WITH VALLEYS PLUNGING TO VALUES
AROUND 30 WHILE THE RIDGES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS... CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS... STILL FEEL THE GFS HAS REBOUNDED A BIT TOO FAST CONSIDERING
THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND COLD TEMPS TO START EACH DAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY WE
SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL SLOW ANY WARM UP. THE CLOUDS
WILL ACTUALLY START INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DROPS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF BRINGS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE UP THE MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE ERN CORN BELT. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MO/MS RIVERS...
THERE SHOULD BE ENUF ENERGY TO PRODUCE SHRA FOR WRN KY SAT NITE AND
THAT PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE EAST WITH THE 50H TROF ON SUN BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ERN KY LATE SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SPLIT STEAM FLOW BETWEEN POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAKE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED UNPREDICTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT CAN BE SAID
WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE FIRST OF WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE AREA MAINLY ON MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING/DECREASING POPS ON
EITHER SIDE. THIS EVENT...IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN...WILL BE THANKS
TO A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AND THE
UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTED BY A 140 KNOT H3 JET. WILL LINGER POPS IN A
BIT LONGER ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW...
HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND FLOW BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL WAVE AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO
DRIVEN BY AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WILL TAPER POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE TERRAIN WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING AND
WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE COLUMN. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW UNTIL DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE AGREEABLE AMONGST MODELS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A LOW DIURNAL RANGE AS RAIN KEEPS
LOW TEMPS UP AT NIGHT AND CLOUDY SKIES KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN. SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DESPITE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE. TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD FAVOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
RETURN FLOW AT THE RIDGETOP LEVEL. SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH WITH SMALL DIURNAL RANGES ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED
MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING NEAR THE WV BORDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL SCATTER OUT BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIE DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DUSTY/HAL
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...HAL
