FXUS61 KCAR 120920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WINDY AND COLD WEATHER TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.  A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE
TODAY AS TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF NEW NEWFOUNDLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES THIS MORNING
SINCE DONT THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. STILL
EXPECTING 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED CAA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY BE LOW/MID TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S DOWNEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. LOW TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOW TEENS DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST THIS TERM WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. 

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE LATEST SRG
INCLUDING THE SREF AND CANADIAN GEM POINT TO A WARMER SCENARIO
W/SNOW GOING OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE
COAST. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS CHANGEOVER FROM A BANGOR TO
CALAIS LINE ON SOUTH TO THE COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA REMAINS ALL SNOW. SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING PRECIP(FZRA) AS
WARM AIR OVERRUNS THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC. ATTM...DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FZRA OUT OF THE FCST AS THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARMING ABV 0C THROUGH 900MBS FOR BGR AND BHB. THE LATEST ECMWF
HAS NOW LEANED W/A WARM SOLUTION AS WELL. FURTHER NORTH...THE
COLUMN STAYS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. DECENT JET OF 50-60
KTS FORM 850-700MBS WILL AID IN THE FORCING W/THE WAA NOTED FROM
925-850MBS. ATTM...DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC AND SREF FOR
THE QPF ATTM WHICH SUPPORTS .25 TO JUST UNDER .50" ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH....10-.25" LOOKS TO BE THE
GOING RATE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA W/AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST TO
THE COAST. 

THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE DAYCREW FOR A SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE AND A COLDER SCENARIO WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOWFALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GMOS WAS LOADED AND THEN MODIFIED BLENDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT WX MAKER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
AND OPERATIONAL GFS POINT TO A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW W/A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL FOR THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC
SUPPORT A FASTER MOVEMENT W/NO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HINTS
AS A LOW TRYING TO GET GOING NEAR THE DELMARVA BY 84 HRS.
ATTM...ACCEPTED THE GMOS POPS WHICH SHOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLE RAIN FOR THE COAST.

SIGNIFICANT THINGS TO NOTE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE WINDS AND COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TODAY. GUSTY 
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35 KT EXPECTED
TODAY ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM...VFR GOING TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR BY
SUNDAY EVENING. A RETURN TO IFR FOR LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: KEPT THINGS AT SCA LEVELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR BOTH THE WINDS AND SEAS. THE SEAS WILL HOLD UP FOR A WHILE
INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WNAWAVE LOOKED TO BE CONSISTENT
AND FOLLOWED SUIT. THINKING HERE IS THAT STG SW JET OF 50-60 KTS
FROM 850-700MBS WILL REMAIN ALOFT W/GUSTS APCHG 30 KTS.
THEREFORE...STEERED AWAY FROM GALES ATTM. THE BLEND OF THE NAM12
AND GFS WAS USED FOR THE WINDS WHICH SHOWS SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25
KTS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT