FXUS63 KMPX 102357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.UPDATE...

ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL START TO RETREAT NORTH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER 
AIRFLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE 
TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  STILL ANOTHER COLD DAY ON 
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO 
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR 
SLOWLY WARMING BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER 
NORTH AMERICA. BOTH THE LATEST GFS90 AND ECMWF KEEPS THE NEXT SURGE 
OF ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH 
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY. SO IN THE 
MEANTIME...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. 

LONG RANGE...WENT BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES 
MODERATING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
BROAD NORTHWEST AIRFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH 
THE DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING WITH AXIS JUST PASSING THROUGH THE MSP METRO AT
2345Z. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE BRINGING WEST THEN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS
WILL SLACKEN TO 6 TO 9 KTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT THOSE
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 5000
FT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A KAQP TO KRGK
LINE WITH A FEW BKN PATCHES STILL APPEARING. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND MOVE EAST. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTH AS THE RIDGE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KAXN...A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KSTC...A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 5000 FT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM 7
TO 12 KTS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 7 KTS BY 02Z OR SO.

KRWF...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER BELOW 12000 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...FEW-SCT SKIES WITH BASES OF 3000 TO 5000 FT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY PRIOR TO 1 OR 2Z AND MAY
STILL PEAK AROUND 12 KTS OR SO BEFORE DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 KTS.

KEAU...CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF BKN030
OR SO SKIES MAY MOVE OVER THE AIRFIELD AND BRING SOME FLURRIES.

KRNH...THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AIRFIELD BY ABOUT 02Z BRINGING
WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SHORT PERIODS OF BKN030-050 ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.  ..MDB..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JVM/MDB