FXUS64 KHGX 261022
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A MILD AND VERY SEASONABLE THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO CENTER OF LATEST UPPER MS VALLEY LOW ALLOWING
FOR THIS BROAD TEXAS TROUGH. PER RECENT RAOBS/SFC OBS ALONG WITH
SUPPORTING W/V IMAGERY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR SWINGING ACROSS THE
STATE AND SHUNTING MAJORITY OF SCT CI OFF TO THE SOUTH. CLEAR
SKIES AND DECOUPLED WINDS HAVE ALLOWED MANY INTERIOR SITES THAT
HAVE GONE CALM TO FALL TO NEAR 40F. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER CHILLED
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AS TRANSITORY RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...OFFSHORE WINDS TURN BACK
ONSHORE MID-LATE FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD DECK. UNDER
A MORE FAVORABLE WAA PATTERN...MENTIONABLE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
COMMENCE SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT SYSTEM NEARING THE PAC NW WILL
DIG DOWN OVER THE WEST COAST...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A SIGNIFICANTLY
NEG-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF EARLY SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
OF THE GENESIS OF THE LOWER AXIS PINCHING OFF INTO A CLOSED-OFF LOW
AND HANGING BACK WEST AS THE LOWER-MID COLD FRONT CROSSES TEXAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREA-WIDE LIKELY POPS AS REGION
FALLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND UPPER LEVELS OPEN UP LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AS OF NOW...NOTHING JUMPS OUT OF THE
THERMODYNAMICS THAT WOULD SIGNAL ANY SIG THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...PRIMARILY ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. RECENT PROGS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED DELAYED UPPER LOW
AGGRESSIVELY EJECTING UP AND OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN TEXAS LATE
TUES-EARLY WED. THIS SITUATION LENDS FOR AN OVERCAST AND UNSETTLED
FORECAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER. MODELING HAS BACKED OFF
ON THE COLD SHOT OF AIR THAT THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING
BUT...UNDER THICK CANOPIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN (AS VORTS/SHORTWAVES
ROUND THE BASE OF A SLOW-MOVING SW'ERN UPPER LOW)...MODEST CAA
WILL INHIBIT ANY REAL WARMING FROM UPPER 30S-MID 40 MORNINGS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS RECENT CHAIN-OF-EVENTS IS MEAGER TO SAY THE
LEAST SO...UNTIL RUNS GET A BETTER GRIP ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT WEATHER MAKER...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS AND KEEP TEMPS
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 31
&&
.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES ACROSS REGION. WILL POST SCEC FLAGS FOR THE 20-60 NM GROUP
BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ALSO POST THEM CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE BORDERLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY USHERING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN LATER IN THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DELAYED NEXT COLD FRONT - NOW
MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
USHERED BY THIS FRONT. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. JUST SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 39 67 49 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 40 67 50 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 51 66 58 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
