FXUS64 KFWD 081747
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CIGS
LIFT GRADUALLY TO IFR AND THEN MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK BY 22-23Z WITH SKC THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...CONCERN
SHIFTS TO CROSSWIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. BELIEVE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS LINGERING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NAM/RUC GUIDANCE AND WILL
FORECAST 240/15KT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OUT WEST FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS THINKING. COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH N/NW WINDS NEAR 20KT
CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN THROUGH AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. STILL SIDING WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE WHICH
TAKES A LITTLE LONGER TO ERODE THE COLD AIR...SHOWING BREAKS LATE
IN THE DAY AND KEEPING THE HIGHEST WINDS OUT WEST.
91/DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
TODAYS FORECAST IS QUITE A CHALLENGE. A COLD AIR AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH.
THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR TODAY/S
TEMPERATURES...WEATHER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 9 TO 13 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE COLDER
THAN THE GFS FORECAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THUS HAVE PLACED UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...50S FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BREAK OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S.
WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL LIKEWISE BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD. IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN OUR FORECAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD
FREEZE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 31 41 22 48 / 30 10 5 5 5
WACO, TX 58 34 49 25 51 / 20 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 46 29 41 19 47 / 60 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 50 29 43 18 46 / 20 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 49 30 40 18 47 / 30 10 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 50 31 42 23 48 / 30 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 50 33 45 23 48 / 40 10 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 56 37 46 24 50 / 30 10 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 59 36 50 29 52 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/91
