FXUS61 KCAR 100404
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS MAINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS GUSTY
WEST WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO 
OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL BE LETTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE FOR MEZ015-017 
AS PRECIP GOING TO RAIN FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SOME SLEET
WILL MIX IN W/THE RAIN AT TIMES BEFORE THE PRECIP EXITS TO THE NE.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS WHERE IT IS ATTM.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWING OUR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OUT
AHEAD OF A VERY BROAD...COLD TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO
QUEBEC. COLD AIR...AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF POWDERY SNOW MAY FALL OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL AS IT CROSSES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN BECOME
WEST NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS REACHING 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE
WINDY AND COLD AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM GRIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESS WILL BE BUILDING IN AS A LOW PRESS EXITS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. THE GFS
MOVES A SERIES OF LOWS STRUNG NORTH TO SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE AREA FROM 00Z TO 12Z ON MONDAY. THE
ECMWF MOVES A WEAK LOW THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME.
BOTH AGREE THAT HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA 00Z WED. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED 500HPA LOW REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOADED GMOS...ADJUSTED SKY AND POP GRIDS TO
BETTER SUPPORT ONE ANOTHER. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDS W/ SNOW ACROSS OUR SRN TAF SITES ATTM AND THIS SHOULD
SPREAD INTO NRN AREAS BY LATE AFTN... THEREAFTER...XPCT WDSPRD IFR
CONDS TO PERSIST INTO TNGT W/ CONDS IMPRVG RAPIDLY FROM SW-NE
AFTER MDNGT AFTER PASSAGE OF THE OCLD FRONT AND A LOW-LVL WND SHIFT
FROM ESE TO SW...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR DOWNEAST. MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH AND VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STORM WRNGS IN PLACE W/ WNDS OVER THE WATERS ON THE
INCRS ATTM... WILL CONT STORM WRNGS AS HEADLINED THRU 06Z AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A GLW THEREAFTER...

A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS STRONG...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ003>006.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ010-011-
     031-032.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...NORCROSS