FXUS66 KSGX 112149
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
LIGHT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S
SHORTWAVE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH GREATER
THAN ONE INCH FALLING IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS TO LESS THAN A
TENTH IN SOME SAN DIEGO COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THE
REST OF TODAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FAST MOVING VORT MAX AND REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER TSTORM
COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STATIONS IN
THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH
OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY...BUT JUST NOT AS
HEAVY AS IN THE NORTH. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD HOVER AROUND 6500-7000
FEET. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE BIG BEAR AREA.
SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVEL
WILL FALL TO 5500 FT NORTH...6500 FT SOUTH...BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INLAND.
ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTAL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE FOR BETWEEN 0.50
TO 1.50 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND 1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4.00 INCHES IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY AT
RESORT LEVELS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 12
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WILDERNESS
AREAS. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. IN THE DESERTS...GENERALLY ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAIN OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
112030Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS EXPECTED W OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AFTER 02Z WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT. LAYERS
TO FL150. COASTAL SLOPES WILL BE OBSCURED WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LAYERED CIGS ABOVE
FL050.
&&
.MARINE...
A 15 SECOND 7 FT SWELL CONTINUES OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BUT HAS NOT
RESULTED IN HIGH SURF AT THE COAST. THE SWELL WILL DECREASE SOME
THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS BY EVENING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTS
TO 25 KT OR MORE...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
