FXUS64 KLZK 090529
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1129 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET.
WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG/GUSTY...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 14 TO 22 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.
SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST. (46)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEWPTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OR HAVE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES SINCE
LATE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TO THE WEST
OF AR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
SEE RAPID DROP IN TEMPS/DEWPTS BEHIND FRONT AS VERY POTENT STORM
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS...SUSTAINED
AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MIDDAY WED. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
AR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING WED NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE STATE. THE LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE DISPERSE.
THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH WITH SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED IN ARKANSAS AROUND 06Z AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST INITIALLY BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO
35 MPH. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
MORNING...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OPTED TO STAY WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION THRU THE PD. UPR FLOW IS
PROGGED TO RMN ZONAL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. A WEAK STORM SYS WL MOVE
EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT/EARLY SAT NGT...BRINGING SLGT CHCS OF
LGT RAIN TO THE FA. A NEW SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS FCST TO WORK SWD
INTO AR MON AND MON NGT. PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE FNT IS EXPECTED TO
END FM THE NW BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. ONE CONCERN WL BE ANOTHER
FAST MOVG SFC LOW THAT WL PASS S OF AR TUE. CURRENT FCST TRACK WOULD
KEEP RAIN CHCS CONFINED TO S AR. THIS SYS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
FOR ANY CHG IN FCST TRACK AND EFFECT ON PRECIP CHCS. &&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 30 37 17 38 / 50 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 35 46 22 44 / 50 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 23 30 15 36 / 40 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 30 37 20 42 / 40 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 39 21 41 / 50 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 39 51 23 44 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 28 36 20 41 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 32 16 36 / 40 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 32 40 18 39 / 50 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 35 46 22 43 / 50 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 28 35 17 39 / 40 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 32 38 19 40 / 50 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 33 44 21 42 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
