FXUS61 KILN 260932
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING INDIANA OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL JUST END UP BEING FLURRY
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING WORKING TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET SOME SUN. BUT SUSPECT CLOUDS
WILL FILL BACK IN LATER IN THE DAY. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. UPPER LOW WILL START TO SWING TOWARDS THE REGION LATER IN
THE NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL HOLDING AT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. TRAILING SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. THIS
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MOS
BLEND FOR LOWS AND FAVORED COOLER NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS TO BE
SNOW. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH ENERGY PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HEADING TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COULD DELAY THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT
HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS ENSEMBLES...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOWERING THEM ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS AT SOME LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THAT
WERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE KCMH AREA AND WILL
EXIT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL AND LOWER CIGS OVER
INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY...HOWEVER WITH NE TREND HAVE JUST LOWERED
CIGS AT THIS TIME BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z. BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOWERS
THAT ARE REDUCING VISBYS IN INDIANA WILL GENERALLY MOVE NW OF THE
TAF SITES AND IF TAF SITES DO RECEIVE SNOWFALL IT WILL NOT BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISBYS. SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER KENTUCKY
AND HAVE SCATTERED OUT CLOUDS AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 09Z TO 10Z. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN HOWEVER
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY UP
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
