FXUS62 KMLB 251437
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING OBSERVED OVER THE GULF
AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INTO LAKE COUNTY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFT AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL SEE
INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY WHICH STILL MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO...MAINLY DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SWERLY THIS AFT.
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP
WILL BE STRONG WINDS GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST AS IT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA AND A POSSIBLE ISO TSRA THIS AFT WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15KTS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING AND VFR CONDS PREVAILING. 

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) 
CHRISTMAS DAY-TONIGHT...STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE PGRAD WEAKENS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED 7-9 FT OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA IN PLACE
WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS EXPIRATION AT 21Z (4PM) AND OFFSHORE WATERS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL 
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER 
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY 
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM 
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM 
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/LASCODY