FXUS61 KBTV 280931
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT TO EASTERN CANADA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND LEAVING STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 417 AM EST SATURDAY...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS VERMONT AN EASTERN NEW
YORK FOR WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. HAD A GUST TO
48 MPH EARLIER AT BTV. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AT 850
MPH.
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS
PRCIPITATION IS ENDING THERE AND THEY NEVER REALLY GOT IN THERE.
THERE WAS SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS SEEN IN WEB CAMS LATE YESTERDAY.
IN VERMONT...PRECIPITATION WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER SO
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL WE GET SOME REPORTS AND CAN SEE WEBCAMS AROUND
DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS REPORTED TO US LATE LAST NIGHT OF 2 TO 7"
REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FT AND AT THE SKI
AREAS. UP TO 1500 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER EARLIER TONIGHT BEFORE
THE WINDS KICKED UP. UTILITIES IN THOSE AREAS CITED TREES ON
WIRES...MOST LIKELY DUE TO HEAVY WET SNOW.
DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH STRONG NW FLOW ALL DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EST SATURDAY...A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEAK RIDGING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APRCHS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
INCRG CLDS WITH SNOW/RAIN SHWRS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHUD BE LIGHT...AS QPF THRU 12Z MONDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EST SATURDAY...EXPECTING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. HAVE GONE BELOW GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MODEL DIVERGE ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL HAVE A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF EASTERN MAINE AT 12Z THURSDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AT 12Z THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO PUT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WOULD SUGGEST A WARMER
STORM AND PRIMARILY RAIN ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL WOULD
INDICATE COLDER WITH SNOW. THUS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY. COLDER WEATHER TO RETURN THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 972 MB NEAR
EASTPORT MAINE AT 08Z SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...DUE TO
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER TIL 22Z SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION
AT 08Z SATURDAY WILL BECOME VFR BY 15Z-18Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CROSS
THE REGION.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES
