FXUS64 KAMA 221656 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTERLY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERN STATES TONIGHT...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES BY
18Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY
WITH SNOW EXPECTED AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES FROM AROUND
08Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY...AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

AVIATION...
GENLY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
ALSO...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS EARLY
AS 10Z TOMORROW AT KDHT AND KGUY. BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TO LOW TO
MENTION PRECIP IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. DO EXPECT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TOMORROW WITH SNOW AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

JJB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
A NEW DAY AND A NEW SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT WINTER STORM FOR THE GREAT PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS HAVE NOW CHANGED THEIR TUNE. INSTEAD OF TAKING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TOWARD SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THEY ARE
NOW TAKING THE LOW SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY HAS THE
FORECAST HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD THE ONSET OF SNOW MAY BE
SOONER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE 2 TO
5 INCHES MAY FALL. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON KEEPING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH...SO CONFIDENCE IS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. BUT THE LATEST 06Z MODEL
RUNS EVEN TAKE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL INTO KANSAS NOW AND NOT SO MUCH
OVER OUR AREA. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONG WIND THAT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT INTENSIFIES TO
OUR NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE SYSTEM LACKS IN SNOW IT MAY MAKE UP FOR IN
THE WIND. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW...IT MAY BE ENOUGH
WHERE WE MAY SEE SOME NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS. HAVE DECIDED TO
RUN THE WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FALL WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REINFORCING SHOTS
OF COLD AIR TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODIFY TOWARD
THE LATE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION PUB...DDC...SPC AND OUN.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
GIVEN THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...
     TEXAS.

&&

$$

11/16