FXUS65 KSLC 251611
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
911 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...ANOTHER
CLEAR...CALM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. PER THE 12Z KSLC
SOUNDING...700 MB TEMPS HAVE WARMED TWO DEGREES OVERNIGHT. 700 MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE EC AS TO HOW HIGH 700 MB TEMPS WILL REACH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE GFS SHOW MAX 700 TEMPS AROUND 2C...WHILE THE EC SHOWS A MAX OF
4C OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS 700MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 4C TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO SUSPECT THAT THE GFS 700 MB
TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. EITHER WAY...THIS WARMING WILL
FURTHER STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...SO VALLEY AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE VERY LITTLE WARMING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20KTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MIXING TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD
REACH THE UPPER BENCH AREAS...RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THIS WEEKEND...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SPLITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND
LOOKS RATHER WEAK BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE CWA. A
SECOND...WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE GFS AND EC ARE VERY CLOSE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE
GFS HOLDS THE SYSTEM TOGETHER BETTER THAN THE EC...WHILE THE GEM
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM THAN EITHER THE GFS OR THE EC. WITH
THE GFS AND EC IN BETTER AGREEMENT...SUSPECT THAT THE GEM IS A
LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. EVEN WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE
GFS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE RATHER MEAGER...AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH EITHER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH 
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS 
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)