FXUS64 KLCH 301744
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA SHOW IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS JUST EXITED THE AREA PER 88D IMAGERY. RADAR
PIX ALSO SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING EAST.
PRIMARY THEMES OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE ARE IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS...MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CEILINGS LIFTING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS ALSO DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KNOTS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS COULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD TOMORROW AS LOW
PRESSURE SPINS UP IN THE NWRN GULF AND APPROACHES. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO STRENGTHEN BACK UP TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE SW ACRS SAINT
MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES INTO THE NW GULF. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AREAS OF
POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN ACRS SE TX AND SW LA. COOLER AIR HAS
FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S OVER THE LAKES AREA OF SE TX TO THE UPPER 60S OVER
EXTREME S CNTRL LA...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MODELS UNDERESTIMATING
COVERAGE OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACRS SE TX...AND THIS ALONG WITH
CLOUD COVER AND CAA PLAYING HAVOC WITH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE TODAY AS PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH POPS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR COOLING THROUGH THIS AFTN. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH BPT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH AEX AND LCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT RAIN
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AROUND MID-DAY.
IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
THE ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA CAN EXPECT RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID-MORNING. IFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO MVFR VIS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALTOCU AND CIRRUS CIGS WILL BE THE RULE TNITE. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT WINDS TNITE.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING
THIS LATEST FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT WE WERE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN MIAMI BEACH WHICH WAS REPORTING 63 DEGREES
WHILE BPT REPORTED 68 AND LAKE CHARLES REPORTED 69 DEGREES.
CHANCES FOR RAIN FALL TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANCE WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOMORROW WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED OFF
THE LOUISIANA COAST TMRW EVENING. RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANOTHER FRONT...A DRY ONE THIS TIME...WILL PUSH TEMPS IN CNTRL LA
AND LAKES REGION OF SE TX TO NEAR FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.
K. KUYPER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 60 49 56 47 55 / 60 30 70 70 40
KBPT 59 49 55 46 56 / 50 30 70 70 40
KAEX 57 42 53 44 52 / 50 20 60 70 60
KLFT 63 47 58 47 57 / 80 30 70 70 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
