FXUS63 KTOP 301017
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
WITH THE CLOSEST CLOUDS BEING STRATUS ALONG MS RIVER AND CIRRUS 
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CUTOFF LOW LEFT SPINNING IN THE BAJA AS THE 
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE ORIGINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS AWAY TO 
THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS VALLEY. 

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL 
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE CUTOFF 
LOW BEGIN TO PHASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT 
THROUGH THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...A COLD START THIS MORNING WILL BE 
REPLACED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY LLVL 
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE CORE OF WARMER AIR (THERMAL AXIS) WILL TRANSLATE 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP 
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AS PHASING OF THE 
SYSTEMS OCCURS AND LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE 
DRIER GFS MODEL AS MOISTURE AND FORCING SEEM TO BE LACKING. SHOULD 
STILL SEE MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH 
DAYS BEFORE STRONG CAA INTO WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS LOWERS 
HIGHS INTO THE 30S. WITH 850 TEMPS NOW FCST TO FALL INTO THE -10 TO 
-13 DEGREE RANGE ON THURSDAY HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FURTHER THROUGH THE 
30S. IF THESE 850 TEMPS VERIFY AND STRATUS/MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECK 
REMAINS IN PLACE...COULD SEE HIGHS EVEN COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR 
SNOW FLURRIES AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
THE AREA.

EITHER WAY...THE COLDEST DAY APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY...THEN 
MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 40S INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT 
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MAIN FORCING AND MOISTURE 
FOCUSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA SO MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR 
NOW...BUT FLURRIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER IF MODELS KEEP THE 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FURTHER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS 
FCST BEYOND THURSDAY.  

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE 
NIGHT SO LEFT GROUND FOG OUT OF FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

53

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$