FXUS64 KOUN 081121
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
521 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/...FROZEN PRECIP...-FZDZ/-FZRA/-SN... WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION OVER TO -DZ OR -RA TODAY. HOWEVER... HOW QUICKLY THIS
OCCURS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIP WILL
ALSO BE ENDING FROM SW TO NE. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST
WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OK. THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE... WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ELEVATED SURFACES AND ROADWAYS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS WAA
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR SYSTEM... SFC TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD THE
PRECIP TO TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO LIQUID. THE PRECIP WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY END FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE IMPACT OF THE
WIND. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH IN THE FA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH STRONGER
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF FA. HOWEVER... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY/WINDY. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW AND LET
DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILLS OF AROUND ZERO TO -10 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA... WITH VALUES FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. WITH THESE
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING FOR NW OK WHERE WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -10 ARE POSSIBLE.
IF WIND SPEEDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED... THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD DAY AND NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WED AND WED NIGHT.
SFC RIDGE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. AS FOR EXTENDED... SPENT MOST OF TIME ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO MAINLY STAYED WITH WHAT WAS
INITIALIZED IN THE GRIDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP FRI AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS MID LVL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE FA WITH
THESE DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER... THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 19 30 11 / 70 10 0 0
HOBART OK 48 12 34 14 / 50 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 23 41 17 / 50 0 0 0
GAGE OK 35 4 26 5 / 90 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 36 14 23 11 / 90 30 0 0
DURANT OK 51 29 37 20 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
OKZ014>031-033>036.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ004>013.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/25/25
