FXUS61 KCLE 230136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
836 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
AND BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FURTHER NORTHEAST...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETED THIS EVENING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TYPICALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRASTICALLY DURING THE EVENING
AND THEN START TO EVEN OUT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE
TO THE MIDDLE TEENS WHICH IS WHERE THE DEW POINT IS AT SO I DONT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DROP OVER THE EASTERN AREAS DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO
HOLD ON KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAY
SEE HIGHER CLOUDS RETURN AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. 

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND ONSET OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WITH POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIP...SNOW/SLEET/FZRA AT ONSET FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL
TRENDS LEANING MORE TOWARDS SOLUTION WHERE BY THE TIME PRECIP
DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR NE ZONES TEMPS WILL HAVE CHANCE TO WARM UP
ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN. FOR NOW ONLY MENTIONED RAIN...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY CLEAR WITH
H850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ALL ABOVE THRESHOLDS TO INDICATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD 
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN SNOW SHOWERS
GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTION IN AT BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT. POPS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY SLOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
WESTERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

HAVE TEMP MINS EARLIER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WILL WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...AND BRING TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS NE ZONES BY THE TIME HIGH POPS ENTER INTO FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT OF FEATURES BUT DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE DETAILS.  
MODELS SHOW DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST 
WISCONSIN.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE EAST 
OF THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE 
THE LOW ONLY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND 
COLD ADVECTION STILL OCCURRING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY 12Z 850MB TEMPS 
ARE SIMILAR BETWEEN MODELS WITH BOTH SHOWING -10 TO -12C OVERHEAD. 
MONDAY WILL SHAVE POPS TO JUST SE OF THE LAKES IN THE TRADITIONAL 
SNOW BELT AS DRIER BUT COLDER AIR MOVES IN.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY 
THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN PULL NORTHEAST.  
DECREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO WILL CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER 
POPS.  ONLY QUESTION WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AS THE 
ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS BY DAY 7 AND 8.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WAS CONTINUING
AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE CLOUDS
DECREASE SOME BR MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
CLOUDS AND OR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE VEERING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TO 
THE NORTH OF THE LAKES. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST BY THURSDAY 
AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WEST HALF OF 
THE LAKE SOME TIME ON THURSDAY. 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL TRACK 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER IOWA 
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY  
DRIFT NORTHEAST CROSSING WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND THE NORTHERN 
LAKES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BUT A 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK