FXUS65 KBYZ 281636
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PUSHING A CLEARING LINE THROUGH.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS FROM NEAR MILES
CITY TO BILLINGS TO RED LODGE. THE CLEARING SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN AREAS SEEING
SUNNY CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DUSTING
OF SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH MAYBE AN INCH IN FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER HILL
LOCATIONS IN POWDER RIVER AND SOUTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY.
CHANGES...LOWERED CLOUD COVER FOR WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AND
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMEST OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUN
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE WORKING ON TEMPS. CLOUDS/PRECIP IN
THE EAST SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND INCREASED A BIT OVER WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRESSURE FALLS ALREADY BEGINNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE
IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY BRINGING WARM AND
DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL INFLUENCE OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL SWEEP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE ON TAP ACROSS THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY FROM MILES
CITY EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS BACK
AGAIN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOESN'T HAVE THIS TROUGH AT ALL. GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE WAY OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GFS PLACING A
LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH VERY COLD AIR WITH
THE ECMWF BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS FAR
OUT AND KEPT TEMPS AND PRECIP CLOSE TO CLIMO. WILL NEED TO SEE
FUTURE MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM KSHR TO KBHK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY. AS THIS PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO ITS PLACE. SOLUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 027/043 028/052 031/041 020/031 018/029 018/032
0/B 10/N 00/N 13/J 21/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 041 021/040 028/048 029/038 018/029 013/027 011/030
0/U 10/N 00/N 14/J 21/B 11/N 11/B
HDN 042 023/047 023/053 026/044 018/033 017/032 016/035
3/S 10/B 00/U 12/J 21/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 040 020/043 023/052 025/041 019/033 017/031 015/032
2/S 11/B 00/B 12/J 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 039 019/043 022/052 025/043 019/032 015/029 014/032
+/S 10/B 00/U 02/J 22/J 11/B 11/B
BHK 037 019/042 023/050 024/040 017/031 012/027 009/030
4/S 11/B 00/B 02/J 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 038 018/043 019/055 025/041 017/031 015/029 016/032
+/S 10/B 00/U 02/J 22/J 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
