FXUS62 KTBW 010057
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
755 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS AND OTHER HAZARDS ON WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...MODELS STILL SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT 
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO LOW AROUND THE TEXAS/NW GULF 
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH THE MID 
LVL LOW DISAPPEARING BY WED EVENING AND PULLING THE MAIN TROUGH WELL 
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. GFS REMAINS AS THE STRONGER SOLUTION 
WITH A SQUALL LINE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
TUE. WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL 
SOLUTIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. BEST 
TIMING FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE WED AROUND NOON 
THROUGH THU EARLY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING ACROSS N FLORIDA 
AND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AT 740 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA WAS SHOWING SOME FAST MOVING SPRINKLES 
ACROSS CENTRAL FL...BUT OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER...NO 
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF 
THE EVENING.     

AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE STILL ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
ARE REQUIRED ATTM. 

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE WEATHER AND THE EXTENT OF THE HAZARDS.
 
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BEFORE MORNING. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF TAMPA AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
AGAIN... BECAUSE OF LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT JUST A
FEW SHOWERS BUT CERTAINLY MORE CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
 
THE REMNANT FRONT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY 
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND FASTEST SOLUTION
SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING GALE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z NAM IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW...
WHICH HAS A BIG IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
 
FOR NOW...WE BLENDED THE 12Z GFS WITH LAST NIGHTS 00Z ECMWF. THIS 
BRINGS A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE TO LEVY COUNTY AS EARLY AS SUNSET 
WEDNESDAY. FEEL AT THIS TIME ITS BETTER TO REMAIN ON THE FASTER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS US TO ISSUE SOME COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL KEEP WATCH CONFINED TO
HILLSBOROUGH AND PINELLAS COUNTIES NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME.
 
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
 
THE BEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD... 
STARTING AROUND 7 PM FOR THE NATURE COAST AND MOVING RAPIDLY 
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE 
STORMS...BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. STILL...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS WITH 50 TO 60 KNOT GUSTS AND EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
OF TORNADOES.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE 
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD 
PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO NEAR TPA/PIE...BUT 
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING GULF STORM ON TUESDAY WILL BRING POTENTIAL 
FOR 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING 
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW OF 
AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. SEAS MAY 
REACH THE 8 TO 10 FEET RANGE...MAINLY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD 
BEGIN SUBSIDING BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES 
WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA 
WEATHER RADIO FOR THE MOST RECENT WEATHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN FLORIDA. 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...22/AR
SHORT TERM...JILLSON
AVIATION...69/PRC