FXUS61 KOKX 292027
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
327 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE CAUSING TEMPS AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
TO RISE MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. A FORECAST UPDATE
WAS JUST ISSUED TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS AROUND 60 DEGS ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE INTERIOR NYC METRO AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST AND NORTH OF NYC WILL OCCUR WHERE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE UPPER FLOW...UNTIL CLOUDS THICKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EAST...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH
DURING MONDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW GETS CAUGHT UP IN...AND
INTERACTS IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. 12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO FAVOR AN INLAND TRACK...PASSING JUST WEST OR OVER NEW YORK CITY.
GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS PROGRESS WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER ITS STILL
FASTER WITH LOW MOVEMENT COMPARED TO EC/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID TO OCCUR WITH THIS
EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THIS LOW PASSES FURTHER EAST...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING WITH A NEW MOON
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO THE S AND LOW PRES TO THE NE WILL KEEP SW FLOW LOCKED
IN THRU TNGT. LOW PRES NEAR DETROIT WILL DRAW A CDFNT THRU 15-19Z
MON WITH INCREASING NW FLOW AFT FROPA.
CIGS/VSBY VFR TIL CDFNT APPROACHES. MVFR WITH SHRA 15-19Z MON.
WINDS A STEADY 8-12KT AROUND 220 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. STRONGEST
ALONG THE COASTS...WITH SOME DIMINISHMENT INLAND AFT DARK. WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON MRNG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN GUSTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH DIRECTION 300-330.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON NGT-TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR AT KSWF.
WED-THU...DEEP LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU. PERIODS OF +RA...LLWS...STRONG SFC WINDS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
STORM.
FRI...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO QUICKLY RETURN
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS STARTING 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
6 PM MONDAY.
ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ARE FORECAST AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE FRONT...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ON STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...IF NOT GALES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A NEW MOON...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS GUSTY
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BASIN AVG RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH DURING MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ABOVE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR THE
COAST. THIS LOW COULD PRODUCE A 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GC
HYDROLOGY...GC
