FXUS64 KMEG 092132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING.  POLAR AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS 
THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...EXCEPT 40S 
ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAINLY FOCUSING ON TEMPERATURES.  HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH 
SHORT TERM. THIS IS REASONABLE AS POLAR AIRMASS WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO OUR NORTH SLIDES INTO OUR REGION.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISENTROPIC PRECIPITATION EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH 
MODELS DO HAVE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES.  HAVE USED A 
GFS/NAM BLEND WHICH BRINGS PRECIPITATION IN EARLY SATURDAY.  STILL 
BELIEVE TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET IT IS 
POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATION IN 
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LATER FORECASTS WILL HELP WITH THOSE DETAILS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE WARM UP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINFALL MONDAY/TUESDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND PUSH OF COLDER AIRMASS. THEREFORE FOR NOW WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES GOING FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

 BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING FURTHER AWAY AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER STABLIZES. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  27  38  23  45 /   0  10  10  10 
MKL  24  35  18  41 /   0  10  10  10 
JBR  22  34  19  43 /   0   0  10  10 
TUP  26  40  22  45 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$