FXUS63 KJKL 252339
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
639 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST KY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN THINNING SOMEWHAT. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST. A
SECOND STRONGER LOW IN THE MID LEVELS SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. THIS LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE MODELS
AGREEING IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT 12Z ON
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO FOLLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THURSDAY. AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MIXED RAIN/SNOW IS THE
BEST BET FOR MOST AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...OVER 3000 FEET...WHERE BLACK
MOUNTAIN MAY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...NOT DUE TO TEMPERATURE
CONCERNS...BUT THAT THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

WEAK UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED TO BRING A DRY SATURDAY 
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY 
SEEING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY 
SHOULD BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MOISTURE FROM THE END OF THE 
WEEK SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SUNDAY ON THE OTHER 
HAND...SHOULD START OUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT SEE CLOUDS 
INCREASING BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT SYSTEM WORKS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. 

PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS 
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT MORE AS TIME APPROACHES. FOR NOW WILL 
TIME SHIFT POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUT THEM 
CLOSER TO MONDAY WHICH LINES UP BETTER WITH MORE CONSISTENT FAVORED 
EUROPEAN MODEL. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL ON TRACK TO BE WET AND 
IF SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION PANS OUT...WITH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY 
BEING WET AS WELL. WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT ON MONDAY AND LEAVE 
CHANCE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ALONE FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE A 
BREAK IN THE RAIN...THOUGH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE 
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. 

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
SPINNING THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 12Z. THERE MAY A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AS A LIMITED DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THEN THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND WRAP AROUND MOI SURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON0N. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...WIT SOME MVFR EXPECTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION...JJ