FXUS64 KTSA 012342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AND INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS DURING THE TIME
FRAME WHEN IT IS MOST LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO AND WRN TEXAS THIS 
AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF REFLECTIVITY SHIELD CROSSING RED RIVER 
INTO PARTS OF SC OK. POPS TO INCREASE AREA WIDE TONIGHT...WITH THE 
HIGHEST POPS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY WITH 
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. FEATURE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS TX 
OVERNIGHT...AND BE LOCATED OVER NE TX BY 12Z TOMORROW. NOT CONFIDENT 
IN MUCH OF THE WAY IN SNOW CHANCES AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND 
THE LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS AR. LOW 
LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A FULL 
CHANGEOVER...HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MIX IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW AR AS THIS WOULD BE THE LIKELIEST LOCALE FOR 
ANY WINTRY PRECIP. REGARDLESS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. 
SEASONABLE WEATHER ON THE WAY BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT 
CHANCES OF RAIN( POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON TIMING) 
COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MAV 
GUIDANCE...AND USED MORE OF BLEND OF MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS TOWARDS 
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.             

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05