FXUS64 KCRP 052347
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
547 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST OF
US281 AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES...WL OCCUR DRG
APPROXIMATELY THE 12Z-20Z SUNDAY PERIOD PRIMARILY NEAR/EAST OF
US281.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AND A
LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS DVLPG OVERNITE. THE SLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPS/MOISTURE ACROSS S TX OVRNITE. THE GFS SHOWS
A WARM FRONT/SFC LOW DVLPG TONIGHT AND LIFTING N THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
NE CWA. IN ADDITION A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE GFS PROGS INCREASING INSTABILITY
OVER THE NW GULF AND INTO THE NE CWA BY EARLY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHCS
TOWARD MORNING WITH THE BEST CHCS SHIFTING N FROM 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. THE FCSTD SOUNDING FOR SUNDAY SHOWS A STRONG CAP IN PLACE IN
THE 800MB TO 700MB LEVEL THEREFORE AM EXPECTING MAINLY SHRA'S RATHER
THAN TSRA. THE SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE NE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK RIDGING/NEG VORT ADV IN ITS WAKE PUSHING THE PRECIP TO THE NE
AND SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. BY SUNDAY
EVENING...REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO S TX WITH A
WEAK NLY FLOW DVLPG. THIS WILL BE WEAK REINFORCEMENT WITH MINIMAL
DRY AIR/COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO INCREASING RAIN CHCS...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO A MIX OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAKLY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND WHILE DEWPOINTS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER...SO WILL THE TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.
THEREFORE AM EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A MIX OF STRATUS WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO
DVLP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD FORM.
MARINE...A WEAK NE TO E FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE SE AND
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA'S ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN EXITING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLY WINDS
WILL RELAX BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW LIFT NE OF THE AREA. WIND THEN SHIFT TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BDRY MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW
SETS UP AND A S/W MOVES ACROSS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK TO MODERATE AROUND MIDDAY MON SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE LOW LVL FLOW STRENTHENS MON NGT AS A DEEPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BRINING BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN. THE S/W EXITS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM W-E. HIGH TEMPS TUE COULD BE TRICKY DEPENDING
ON THE THE AMOUNT OF SUN...BUT KEPT 80S IN THERE FOR NOW AS H85
TEMPS SURGE TO +18C. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A FOG EPISODE TUE NGT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT
EARLY TO MENTION NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED AM.
THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT -VS-
THE 00Z RUNS. ADJUSTED THE WINDS DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ONLY
SLIGHTLY AS TO NOT BUY OFF TOTALLY ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PATTERN. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP THU/FRI AS A S/W MOVES OVER
SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
FRIDAY AFTN WITH CLEARING AGAIN FROM W-E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY NICELY IN THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND AS A ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NATION.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 46 67 56 64 58 / 10 30 10 30 40
VICTORIA 41 60 47 60 53 / 20 40 20 40 50
LAREDO 44 69 52 66 55 / 10 10 10 10 30
ALICE 41 68 52 64 57 / 10 20 10 30 40
ROCKPORT 48 66 57 65 59 / 20 30 10 40 50
COTULLA 40 67 45 61 52 / 10 10 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 46 68 55 67 57 / 10 20 10 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 51 68 58 67 61 / 10 30 10 30 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
