FXUS65 KABQ 262155
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...A QUIET DAY HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. LOCALIZED BREEZINESS HAS BEEN NOTED...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WHERE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 700MB HAS
RESULTED IN WAVE CLOUDS OFF THE RATON RIDGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE STATE TODAY. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL FINALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT SUCH THAT IT LOSES ITS
GRIP ON NM AND ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING ENSUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO NW NM. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOCALIZED FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NW NM...BUT GIVEN LITTLE
MELTING TODAY...HESITATE TO PUT FOG IN THE GRIDS AND WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT MONITOR IT. STRONG INVERSIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK
TOMORROW GIVEN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND LITTLE MIXING.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
STATE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MORE OF THE STATE WILL RECEIVE SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL COME ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST...AND MOST
SIGNIFICANT...LOOKS TO TREK ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MID DAY TUESDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FIRST TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL EXIT THE STATE
BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -4 TO -6C
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...PRECIP MAY START
AS RAIN BELOW APPROX 6000FT. DESPITE SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STAY QUITE COOL AND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER SUNSET...ALL AREAS SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION REMAINS...HOW MUCH. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
LIGHT ON THE QPF AMOUNTS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT...THE CANADIAN...ARE MORE BULLISH. RAISED POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS A BIT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE IT
APPEARS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED.
IF THE GFS/CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE CORRECT...A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM NW TO SE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEW YEARS EVE. UNCLEAR HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERATED IF
THIS DOES OCCUR...BUT SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SHOULD BE FAVORED ASSUMING THE TRACK REMAINS
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED. IN ANY CASE...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
34
&&
.AVIATION...MASSIVE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SPRAWLED ACROSS EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF CONUS MAY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO FAR
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH 27/03Z. THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AREA WIDE...WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES AFT APPROXIMATELY 27/06Z OVER NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. VFR OTHERWISE.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE MASSIVE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
EAST AND AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. IN IT/S WAKE...NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH...AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
DRY CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY.
UNDER THE RIDGE...VENTILATION WILL BE POOR MOST LOCALES. POOR
VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
MODELS STILL FORECAST THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
PERIOD. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE BEST PRECIPITATION WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS MORNINGS MODEL
RUNS HAVE REVERSED THIS TREND...BUT AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION
STILL LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF NEW MEXICO. AT THE
LEAST...VENTILATION SHOULD SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...WHILE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY.
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AFTER THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 5 30 7 33 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... -8 29 -3 34 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ -6 30 -3 35 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... -1 33 1 37 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ -6 32 3 36 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... -3 34 2 38 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 4 37 9 39 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 17 49 19 50 / 0 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... -12 31 -7 33 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 2 31 9 34 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 4 33 6 38 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -11 30 -9 32 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... -11 26 -4 30 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... -10 27 -5 31 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ -5 30 -4 34 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 4 36 6 38 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 1 30 7 34 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 6 32 10 36 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 12 36 17 38 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 14 38 20 42 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 8 39 13 41 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 11 38 16 40 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 8 41 10 43 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 11 38 15 40 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 15 42 17 45 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 4 33 6 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 7 35 9 38 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 9 32 10 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 15 38 15 40 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 16 42 18 44 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 18 39 18 39 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 5 33 6 35 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 3 35 4 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 6 32 6 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 15 38 17 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 14 35 15 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 12 40 14 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 13 37 15 38 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 7 34 11 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 13 36 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 11 36 14 39 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 11 37 14 38 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 18 42 20 41 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 16 48 20 44 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 14 44 16 41 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34/99
