FXUS64 KCRP 102321
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
521 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY FRI MORNING AS
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS S TX FROM THE S. -RA/DZ WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI
WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SLY FLOW ABOVE THE
SFC WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER A COLD AIRMASS AT THE
SFC PROVIDING OVERRUNNING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE COASTAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF
THE TAMAULIPAS COAST TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MIGRATES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COAST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCE OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLOUD...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS BELOW THE NAM MOS WHICH MEANS
FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST. THIS OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. WILL INDICATE
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AREA-WIDE FOR FRI WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL OF MEASURABLE
RAIN. AS THE COASTAL TROF PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION UP THE TEXAS
COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER AND PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...AND
EVEN SHOW UPGLIDE (ALBEIT VERY WEAK) CONTINUING ACROSS THE VICTORIA
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE SHOWED CLOUDS SLOWER TO ERODE
SATURDAY AND LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS
(WARMER OUT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE CLEARING TAKES PLACE FIRST).
DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY WORKS INTO THE REGION UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE. THINK THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG EPISODE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AS DRYING ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS TAKE PLACE. WENT AND
INCLUDED MENTION OF FOG IN FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE BEEN
PROGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO TEXAS...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE...
CONTINUES TO LEAVE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BOTH HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS NOW CLOSING OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND IS LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIP BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND LESS
BULLISH ON QPF WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE COMPROMISED FOR TIME
BEING...AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED POPS WILL LIKELY
BE REFINED FURTHER IN COMING DAYS.
MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES...BUT ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO REACH SCA CRITERIAN LEVELS OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS MOVES NORTHWARD THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE. .SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE TO 7 FEET ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE BY THIS MID EVENING AND RISE TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE COASTAL TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES NORTHWARD. KEPT THE SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AND
ADDED THE NEARWATERS FOR THIS MID EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE THE BAYS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT MAY INCREASE BACK TO CAUTION LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A
PESISTENT NE FETCH ACROSS THE NW GULF...BUT COASTAL FLOODING WILL
NOT POSE A SIGNIFCANT THREAT WITH NEAP TIDES PREVAILING THIS TIME
OF YEAR. NORMAL HARMONIC PREDICTED WITH BE JUST AT OR ABOVE A HALF
FOOT WITH GENERAL RULE OF THUMB THAT TIDES WOULD BE HIGHER BY 1 TO
1.5 PREDICTED LEVELS WITH NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD PUT TIDES AT 1.5 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING
WHICH IS BELOW COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 46 51 49 59 46 / 20 70 40 10 10
VICTORIA 40 48 45 57 43 / 10 70 70 20 10
LAREDO 44 50 47 64 49 / 20 40 20 10 10
ALICE 45 49 48 59 44 / 20 70 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 48 52 50 59 46 / 20 70 60 10 10
COTULLA 42 48 46 63 45 / 10 30 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 46 50 50 61 43 / 20 70 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 49 54 54 59 48 / 20 70 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
