FXUS64 KMAF 012341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE LOW IN FIRST 12 HOURS OF AVIATION FORECAST. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN THE AREA BUT CIRCULATION AROUND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES FORECASTING THEM DIFFICULT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR BELOW VFR CIGS
WILL BE THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE TREND AFTERWARD
SHOULD BE FOR CIGS TO INCREASE EXCEPT PERHAPS AT CNM WHERE SNOW ON
THE GROUND COULD CAUSE FOG TO FORM. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCH. LIGHT RAIN...SLEET...OR
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE A
VERY HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON RUNWAYS WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE MOST PART. TOMORROW SHOULD SEE IMPROVED AVIATION WEATHER
AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND PUSHES OUT MOST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

HENNIG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

UPDATE...
RESENT TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FROM WWA SECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR INDICATES UPPER LOW MOVING ACRS TRANS PECOS AND IS
NEAR MRF. CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS GENERALLY
DECREASING HOWEVER LOW IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
PRECIP ACRS PB. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U30S TO N40
AND AS SUCH WILL OPT TO CANCEL WSW AT 21Z. THIS EVENING PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION TO "WRAP AROUND" AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY MODELS
LAST FEW DAYS AND STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST
THRU 06Z...1/2-1" POSSIBLE. PROBABILISTIC SREF FCST ENDS SNOW AT
06Z. AS MID/UPPER LOW MOVES E WED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO M40S ACRS PB WED. MEANWHILE A COLD 5H
TROF PENWHEELS AROUND THRU NRN HIGH PLAINS OPENING DOOR FOR ARCTIC
AIR TO PLUNGE S. MEANWHILE A N/S ORIENTED JET WILL DIVE SWD HARD
THRU THE NRN ROCKY MTNS LATE WED ARRIVING IN CENTRAL ROCKY MTNS
THUR PM. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WELL IN PLACE THUR AFTERNOON AND HIGH
TEMPS IN 30S ARE VERY REALISTIC ACRS PB/SE NM. PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THUR ACRS E/NE NM. BY FRI MORNING MID
LEVEL TROF ASSOCD WITH JET WILL BE NEARING AND LIFT INVOF LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION WILL INCREASE AND PRECIP/SNOW WILL START TO
DEVELOP ACRS SE NM PLAINS/NW PB. ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET
WITH SREF PROBABILISTIC FCST SUGGESTING A LARGE PART OF SE NM/PB
HAVING A 30-70% PROBABILITY OF SNOW GREATER THAN 1". BY 00Z/SAT
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E AND PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE ENDING.
COMBINATION OF PRECIP AND ARCTIC AIR FRI WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 30S AGAIN. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR WATER ON ROADWAYS TO RE-FREEZE
TONIGHT...COLD TEMPS THUR/FRI...AND SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THUR NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. SAT 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM ABOVE 0C BUT
WILL STILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY IN THE 40S/50S. MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY SUN WHICH FAVORS WARMING...HOWEVER
FRONT WILL BE SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MAY HAVE ENUF
MOMENTUM TO MOVE INTO W TX MON AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS SOME.
POSSIBLY MORE PRECIP TUE BUT MORESO N.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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