FXUS64 KBMX 141826
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  

12/SIRMON

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.  FIRST OFF...WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ALL
SECTIONS.  WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND
MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MOISTURE
TO INCREASE.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTH AND THEN TAPER POPS LOWER TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH MOST
PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MORE
UNSTABLE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WARM READINGS EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTH AND 70 TO 75
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND
SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.  MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AS WELL AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.  LIKE THE IDEA OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.  WILL FORECAST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SOUTH IN
THE VICINITY OF BETTER IN-FLOW...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE AND RAINFALL MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON NEW MODEL RUNS LATER
TODAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE EXTREME SOUTH DUE TO
SATURATED CONDITIONS AND IMPULSES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY.  EXPECT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS NORTH.  ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGHS
50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.  MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RATHER QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS A RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.  OVER-ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS(50S/30S) THROUGH THE
WEEK...THEN SLIGHTLY COLDER DURING THE WEEKEND.

50

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE 
ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE SOME 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BY EVENING THEY 
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK DOWN.

A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING COULD OCCUR ACROSS TCL THROUGH 21Z WHICH 
IS NOT REFLECTED ON THE TAF FORECAST. A SMALL AREA OF CLEAR SKIES 
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COULD MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS TCL. 
HOWEVER...IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND I AM NOT 
COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT IT WOULD EVEN LAST MORE THAN 30 MINUTES.

RAIN HAS NOW BEGAN MOVING NORTH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ON 
AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THROUGH THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. RAIN COULD BE VERY HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE 
VISIBILITIES BACK DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR.

EXPECTING FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TO ONLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN 
TAF SITES. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST IF NEEDED IF IT APPEARS 
OTHERWISE SINCE COMPUTER MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE HEAVY RAIN 
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z 
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT A WHOLE LOT 
UNFORTUNATELY. 

10/ARM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA FROM 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

&&

$$