FXUS63 KDDC 240958
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
HE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE CURRENT
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND FOLLOWING
THAT, THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT USHERING COLDER AIR.
DEEP COLDER AIR IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
A BROAD 700 MB LOW AN INVERTED 850 MB SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
TROF REMAINED THE MAIN FEATURES THIS MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, AND THUS WE HAVE A SLOW SYSTEM EVOLUTION. A
BROAD AREA OF RADAR ECHO RETURNS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAVE APPEARED
TO PRODUCE MAINLY A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM METAR
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THOSE REGIONS WHILE NO PRECIPITATION REPORTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED SO FAR OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED FOR OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW MAY
OCCUR LATER IN THE DA Y IN THOSE AREAS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN POTENTIAL SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY ACCORDING TO MODEL
OUTPUT, BUT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, LEAVING
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE CURRENT TRENDS WOULD FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION
OVER THE GFS WHICH PRODUCED MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEPT THE QPF AXIS CLEAR
EAST OF WICHITA THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS FARTHER EAST.
SINCE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
DIMINISHING WE WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR TODAY, BUT MENTION SOME
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW IN THOSE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS WELL. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO MEET OR EXCEED THE ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A NUMBER OF SITES
WITH WIDESPREAD 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS
TODAY. A FALLING OR NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL PRESS THE LIMITS ON THE WIND CHILL CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE VERY POSSIBLE.
MODIFICATION OF COLD AIR IS NOT LIKELY BY DAY 2 WITH COLD TEENS AND
20S STILL EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES AGAIN IN
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY CUTS OFF AS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WITH ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EXPECTED.
RUSSELL
DAYS 3-7...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING SOME ON SATURDAY BUT A DEEP
LAYER OF FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
GOING DURING THE DAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND DECENT MID LEVEL RH WE
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETTING KICKED EASTWARD ON SUNDAY
WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING ONSHORE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA NEXT MONDAY AND MOVING OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC
CWFA WHERE THE BEST LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THERE WILL BE A LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WE DO HAVE
SOME 10-15 POPS GOING AND SINCE THIS IS IN DAY 6 WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW.
&&
AVIATION...
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SKIES
CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER
SUNSET.
GERARD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 23 9 21 11 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 20 8 19 10 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 22 12 22 10 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 23 12 22 12 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 22 8 17 10 / 20 20 20 10
P28 28 13 22 13 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
FN33/02
