FXUS64 KCRP 240510 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1110 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...RAPIDLY MOVING FRONT IS NOW ALONG A SAN ANTONIO-
COTULLA-LAREDO LINE WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT WINDS ARE
ALLOWING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. BEHIND THE FRONT...FOG IS
CLEARING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 10Z THURSDAY MORNING WITH FOG
NO LONGER A FACTOR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...STAGE IS SET FOR A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FRONT IS CURRENTLY
NEAR A UVALDE-FREDERICKSBURG-LLANO LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FRONT IS MOVING RADIDLY EAST-SOUTHEAST DUE IN PART
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 6 MILLIBARS/HOUR OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS/NORTHEAST OLD MEXICO. ABRUPT AND SUSTAINED PUSH
BY THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION STILL WARRANTS WIND ADVISORY...IF
ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY ON. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE RAIN SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN
SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNRISE BUT THEN RISE BACK UP IN TO THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE AT A MINIMUM BY LATE MORNING. GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT
NW/SE MOVES ACRS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROPA AROUND 06-07Z
THU AT LRD AND 08-10Z ACRS ALI/CRP/VCT. SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STG. ANTICIPATE STG 25-35KT
NW SFC WIND AFTER FROPA FOR ABOUT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT. YET...EXPECT NW WIND TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT AFT 15Z THU
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN DRG THE 19-23Z THU PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL FORCE A
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
WITH FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. A LINE OF CONVECTION
IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
FAVORABLE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE A POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IF CONVECTION CAN BREAK THE CAP AS
UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WARM. SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND RAIN CHANCES END THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. CLOUD COVER DECREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WILL LET THE LATER SHIFT EVALUATE THE
SITUATION FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR 15Z-20Z THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS FILTER
IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SEAS AT 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
ADVISORY OUT FOR THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ABRUPTLY TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS S CEN TEXAS BY 12Z FRI AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
COOL NICELY INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS. ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED SO RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SO...LOOKS LIKE NRN AREAS WILL SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FRI
MORNING WITH MID 30S MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO INLAND SECTIONS OF
COASTAL COS.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST REINFORCING COLD
AIRMASSES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE
DISTINCT INDIVIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE SURGES RATHER THAN KEEPING ONE
LARGE HIGH DOMINATING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT MORE
OF A WARM-UP OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SURGE ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN GFS AND NAM TEMPS
ON SAT AS THE GFS IS MORE CLOUDY AND KEEPS THE COOL AIRMASS TRAPPED
NEAR THE SFC. A LARGE DISPARITY ALSO REMAINS BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS AND SOMETHING NEAR ENSEMBLE
MEANS SEEM LIKE THE BEST SOLN FOR NOW MOST PERIODS. THE GFS ALSO
DEPICTS MORE LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ON SAT THAN THE NAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN A BIT TOWARD THE GFS (AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST) DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT STILL THINK GFS MOS POPS ARE
A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. POPS DECREASE SUN AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN
SHUTS DOWN AND WILL REMOVE POPS ON SUN FOR NOW. APPEARS WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SURGE ON SUN AND
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN TEMPS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THINGS GET INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS CEN TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS S/WV. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING OVERRUNNING AS IT COINCIDES W/ THE CONTINUED
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING COLD CANADIAN AIR. THINK HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ON TUE AND LIKE THE OVERALL SLOWER/DEEPER ECMWF FORECAST WRT THE
UPR TROUGH. IF THIS ALL PANS OUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVEN FOR S TX W/ MORE COLD SLOPPY DAYS AHEAD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 54 67 36 57 44 / 50 10 0 0 20
VICTORIA 51 61 31 55 37 / 70 10 0 0 10
LAREDO 51 70 38 61 43 / 20 0 0 0 10
ALICE 50 66 34 59 42 / 40 10 0 0 20
ROCKPORT 55 65 37 55 45 / 60 10 0 0 20
COTULLA 45 66 33 58 37 / 30 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 54 67 35 58 41 / 40 10 0 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 56 66 42 56 48 / 50 10 0 0 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
DUVAL...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
