FXUS62 KMHX 101815
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
115 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA SURGES
ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. TEMPS MAY RISE A CPL DEGS FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN DESPITE
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED CAA TONIGHT AS 850 TEMPS DROP
INTO THE -2 TO -5 DEG CELSIUS RANGE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO UPR 30S BEACHES. DESPITE
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 45. FRI NIGHT
LOOKS COLD AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP WITH LOW DEWPTS. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 20S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOW TO MID 30S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN
ON SATURDAY PER MODEL TRENDS AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COASTAL FRONT WILL
MAKE INROADS BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SHUD BE A DRY DAY AS
MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA EITHER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MON. MODEL CONCENSUS HARD TO COME BY GOING INTO
MIDWEEK SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR DAYS 6/7.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH BEFORE SUNRISE. WIND RUNNING AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS EVENING
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO START BUILDING IN FRIDAY WITH DECREASED WINDS AND
CLEARED SKIES.
BY SATURDAY EVENING...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE GA/FL BORDER.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 1015 AM...WIND OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTHWEST
BEHIND FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
SPEEDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS JUST ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 7 FEET. WIND WILL
PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MIXING OF HIGHER SPEEDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LIFTS OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STIRRED UP
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP AS IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. AS RIDGE MOVES OUT A LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA AND MOVE UP THE COAST. WIND WILL
BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY SUNDAY AND SPEEDS WILL
PICK UP. SHOULD GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THIS LOW ON
SUNDAY.
LOW THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BE EAST OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ARE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY. HIGH RPESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WIND SLACKENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 230 AM THU...THE RECENT RAINFALL OF 1-2" ACROSS THE REGION
AND MORE NOTABLY UPSTREAM HAS ONCE AGAIN CAUSED RIVERS TO RISE.
THE NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BANKFULL IN MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. KINSTON STAGE HAS CLIMBED
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR
FLOODING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING TODAY. THE STAGE AT PGV IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE ROANOKE
RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND WITH KERR LAKE POOL
ELEVATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGH DAM DISCHARGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HRS WILL EXPECT THE RIVER TO REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG
HYDROLOGY...SJ
