FXUS63 KLBF 081015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
415 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM IS HERE AND BRINGING A GOOD PUNCH TO THE PLAINS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
TRACK OF THE STORM. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER
THE CWA...WITH OVER 1 INCH OF POWDER SNOW REPORTED ALREADY HERE
AT THE OFFICE. RADAR NOT PICKING IT UP BECAUSE OF A POWER
FAILURE...CAUSING IT TO GO DOWN. TECHNICIANS WORKING ON
IT...HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY PARTS NOT LOCALLY AVAILABLE
AND THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGHOUT THE STORM. THIS WILL MAKE
MONITORING SNOW BANDS VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE DAY SHIFT.

UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES...HOWEVER
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS ALREADY GAINING
STRENGTH OVER S CENTRAL NEB AND PARTS OF KS. SATURATION ON
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER THE AREA...IS VERY DEEP...AND MUCH IN THE
FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS TEMPS VERY COLD ALOFT WITH ARCTIC
DOME. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AT ONE TO
TWO TENTHS AN HOUR...DESPITE MODELS HAVING LITTLE LIFT IN THE
COLUMN. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AROUND 14Z TO 15Z...BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER EASTERN CO. HIGHEST OMEGA PROJECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE AT AROUND AN INCH AN HOUR OF
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE THIS THROUGH ABOUT 19Z
TO 21Z...PER BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED AN EXPANSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE HEADLINES FOR SNOW LOOKING GOOD. STILL HAVE SOME
WORRIES AS MODELS ALL VARY WITH HIGHEST QPF TOTALS IN THE
SOUTHEAST RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.50 INCHES. THE WORRY IS ALSO THEN
TO GET THE CORRECT SNOW TO WATER RATIO. SO FAR RUNNING CLOSE TO
20 TO 1...WHICH WHAT WAS USED FOR THE DAY. THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCALLY AMOUNTS PUSHING CLOSE TO 10 INCHES. 

BY AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND BECOME
BREEZY. WINDS NOT LOOKING AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER
STILL AROUND 25 MPH AND POWDERY SNOW GOING TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING. 

THEN AS SKIES CLEAR...BITTER COLD AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS/CLEAR SKY LINE MAKE TONIGHT LOWS DIFFICULT. CURRENT TEMPS
IN MONTANA IN THE -20F TO -30F RANGE AND THAT AIR IS HEADED THIS
WAY. COMBINE THAT AIR WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK...AND EXPECT LOWS TO
PLUMMET. SEVERAL READINGS YESTERDAY ALREADY ABLE TO BREAK -10F AND
EXPECT SOME AREAS TO BREAK -20F TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO SLOW TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND HAVE HOISTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS WIND
CHILLS FALL CLOSE TO -30F. EXPECT SOME WIND CHILLS BELOW -30F
TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
DAYSHIFT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS AS A WIND CHILL WARNING
MAY BE NEED. WIND CHILL ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE MET OVER ALL OF CWA
BUT ONLY PUT OUT FOR AREAS NOT UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

CONTINUED BITTER COLD TOMORROW AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. LOWS
LIKELY TO EQUAL IF NOT SURPASS TONIGHTS LOWS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. 

THEN A SLOW REBOUND OF TEMPS AS LARGE TROF SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE
EAST. SNOW PACK GOING TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND LIKELY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AT LEAST NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE
MEDIUM TO EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING FROM 
MIXED VFR/MVFR TO MIXED IFR/LIFR. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH CIGS 
BELOW OVC010 SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 12Z 
AND 15Z AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A 
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH 
VFR DEVELOPING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY 06Z AND BY 12Z EAST OF HIGHWAY 
83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-056>058-094.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 
AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004>009-022>026-035>037-
056>058-094.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR 
NEZ010-027>029-038-059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ006>009-
026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC