FXUS62 KMFL 290522
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1222 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL S. FL TERMINALS. LIGHT
DRAINAGE OR WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
UNTIL ABOUT 13Z SUNDAY WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TERMINAL KAPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009/
UPDATE...NO FCST CHANGES NECESSARY TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT
5F DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE LAND. SEE BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT 18Z CENTERED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
ALABAMA EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF S.C. OR
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VEER TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVING TO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA MID DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE CURRENT SCENARIO AS SEEN BY THE GFS40 WHICH
IS DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY AND CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF SHOWED.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THURSDAY AND ATTM LOOKS NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS LAST FRONT BUT STILL REFRESHING. WILL STAY WITH THE
CURRENT FCST OF CHC RW/SLGT CHC TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT AND CHC RW
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST.
MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VEER TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO SCA SPEEDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. AND THEN AFTER THE FRONT, NORTHWEST WINDS MAYBE ONLY
TO SCEC LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER...AFTER TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING, THE ATMOSPHERE
MODIFIES AND THE LOWEST RH'S ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30
PERCENTILE RANGE OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. NO CONCERNS AFTER
THE WEEKEND.
FYI, THE PWAT'S ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS .24" WHICH IN VERY NEAR
THE ALL TIME MINIMUM SINCE 1948.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 54 78 61 81 / 0 - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 59 79 66 81 / 0 - - 10
MIAMI 59 79 66 82 / 0 - - 10
NAPLES 51 78 58 81 / 0 - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
