FXUS62 KMFL 062353
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
653 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. DURING THIS EVENING...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT COUPLED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG EAST
COAST COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS...BUT MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS KAPF AND KTMB STARTING AROUND 08/09Z WITH MVFR VIS
AND/OR CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE
KEYS...AND MAY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
WESTERLY OR VARIABLE AROUND 06Z ALL TERMINALS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE 850MB TO 700 MB LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF KEY WEST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TONIGHT PULLING THE STATIONARY FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
TO SWING EASTERLY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PUT
BACK A 10 PERCENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL
BE IN A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SO THE SET UP FOR
FOG FORMATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD. SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE METRO AREAS
WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR INLAND METRO AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH ON
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE CWA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ON TUESDAY INTO NORTH
FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK
BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO FOG FORMATION AGAIN IS GOOD
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT...AND ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
WORDING TO ZONES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH
AND STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW 800MBS OVER THE CWA. SO
HAVE REDUCED THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
FOR LATE THIS WEEK. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS...THEN
MORE LIKELY THE THUNDER WORDING WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE ZONES
FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND ONLY KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING GOING.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND
MOVES EAST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
SUNSHINE STATE...THEN THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
THE WINDS BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE FRONT BOUNCING AROUND. SO THE SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MARINE SECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE FOG PROBLEMS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE:
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI 85 86 - 1997
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 89 - 1919
WEST PALM BEACH 85 87 - 1948
NAPLES 84 88 - 1982
MIAMI BEACH 84 85 - 1942
CLEWISTON 86 87 - 1978
IMMOKALEE 86 87 - 1986
DEVILS GARDEN 87 86 - 1986
SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE ZONES
SECTION FOR MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 81 67 83 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 82 69 83 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 67 83 69 84 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 60 78 65 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
