FXUS65 KLKN 241057
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
257 AM PST THU DEC 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE SILVER STATE FOR THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD 
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL PASS MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CLOUDS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. STRONG INVERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOW COVERED VALLEYS WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH
NIGHTTIME TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF NRN NV THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INLAND BY LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. RIDGE BREAKING 
DOWN OVER THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PUSHING INTO 
NORTHERN CA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD WEAK 
LOW EXPANDS ACROSS SW U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND LOCATION 
OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CWA ARE STILL 
VARYING BETWEEN MODELS...SO FOR NOW KEPT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 

DISCREPANCIES MAGNIFY IN MODELS MONDAY AND BEYOND. EC CONTINUES TO 
TRACK THE LOW TO THE SW THROUGH S CA AND AZ MONDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF 
WEAK RIDGING BEGINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUESDAY...AND A 
SECOND SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY. 

GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WEAK FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A 100KT NORTHWESTERLY JET MOVING OVER 
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RIDGE 
EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM 
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT. 

GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE ACCURATE IN THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS...SO 
WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF CLIMO AND GFS...HOWEVER 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...AN 85KT NORTHWESTERLY JET IS BRUSHING ACROSS NE NEVADA 
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE KEEPING THE WINDS ALOFT 
FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER...EXCEPT NEAR MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND 
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH THE JET EXITING INTO UTAH. 

THE ASOS AT KELY IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL THIS MORNING. 
TAFS ARE HOWEVER BEING ISSUED AS RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS KEEPING WX 
BENIGN. AMEND NOT SCHEDULED IS APPENDED TO THE KELY TAF TO SIGNAL 
THAT ANY DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TAF AND THE ACTUAL WX CAN NOT BE 
DETECTED BY THE AUTOMATED WX EQUIPMENT...AND THEREFORE THE TAF COULD 
AT TIMES BE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL CONDITIONS WITHOUT 
FORECASTERS BEING AWARE OF ANY DISCREPANCIES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96