FXUS62 KFFC 091332
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
832 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 802 HAS BEEN EXTENDED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA UNTIL 1000 AM THIS MORNING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS
AL AND INTO GA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOVING
INTO W GA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH MORE COMING BEHIND THAT OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z THU. THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IL AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NE INTO SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC THROUGH
06Z THU. THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE USHERING IN SOME VERY WARM AIR. MOST OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA HAS SEEN ALMOST A 20 DEG INCREASE IN TEMPS OVER THE
PAST 4 HOURS. INSTABILITIES ARE ALSO INCREASING IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH MUCAPES IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE AND LIS AROUND -1 TO -3. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IS STILL THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH GA WITH THE 50-80KT LLJ ACROSS MOST OF THAT AREA. LOOKS
LIKE THERE IS NOT MUCH ROTATION WITH THESE STORMS BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS STILL THEIR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS VERY STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 40 KT RANGE AND MAY SEE SOME HIGHER GUST ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE N GA MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES CENTERED OVER N GA BY 18Z FRI BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC SAT AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT MORNING. THIS RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO SET UP A WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LA SPREADING EASTWARD INTO GA
SAT MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN. THE WEDGE STAYS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY SO IT SHOULD
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER GA VERY STABLE.
AVIATION...
CEILINGS/VSBYS LIFTING INTO MVFR RANGE OR BETTER BEHIND MAIN AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED STRONG STORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW VFR/VFR CONDITIONS MOST TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING. THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIMIT THUNDER THREAT TO MAINLY
CSG/MCN/AHN AFTER 12Z. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF FRONT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND STILL QUICK BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AFTER 00Z.
49
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 62 28 54 27 53 / 50 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 62 27 49 26 49 / 10 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 51 27 44 18 42 / 20 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 26 46 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 68 40 50 33 48 / 30 5 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 54 28 50 23 44 / 20 0 0 0 10
MACON 71 35 51 30 49 / 60 5 5 0 10
ROME 54 29 48 22 45 / 0 0 0 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 69 30 48 22 48 / 20 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 72 39 50 28 50 / 70 30 30 0 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: EMANUEL...MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
WHEELER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
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