FXUS61 KILN 120543
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ALLOWING A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. WINDS WILL BE LESS
TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LIGHT SW FLOW HOWEVER
WILL SLOW THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND HAVE SEEN THIS TREND THIS
EVENING SO FAR. HAVE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 FLOW BACKS FROM W TO SW WITH APPROACH OF S/W ON SAT. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP A LITTLE.
OVERALL PATTERN IS A LITTLE WARMER THIS RUN THAN YESTERDAY. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. MIN TEMPS
SAT NGT STILL EXPECTED TO BE EARLY...WITH RISING TEMPS AFTER THAT.
TEMPS ON THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO 32...SO MIGHT SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR ON THE LEADING EDGE.
12Z MODELS ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM....SHUNTING IT E AND
TAKING PCPN E BY 18Z. H8 MOISTURE HANGS IN MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SUN NGT...CLEARING OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT COULD SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WORK BACK IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL SHOW ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PATTERN BUT DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD FEEL FOR PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SO STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF ANY RAINFALL LATE MON AND OVERNIGHT IS IN QUESTION.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION THAT GETS
REINFORCED A BIT EACH DAY UNTIL THE HIGH SETTLES OVER OHIO ON THURS.
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 2 DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE LOW...AND GENERALLY TOOK 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
OFF OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO
MODERATE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND SEE SOME WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SOUTHEAST TRACKING LOW IS BEING PROGGED TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION...MORE SO IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...BUT CEILINGS WILL MAINLY STAY ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT CVG WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY
ACCOMPANY RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. ICE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
