FXUS61 KBOX 302034
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND
DRIVEN RAIN TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THERE IS EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR...GENERALLY 0.10
INCH OR LESS...BUT MOST AREAS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.
HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY
NOTING BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP MOVING INTO BERKSHIRES AND SW
VT...WHICH SHOULD STEADILY MOVE E DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE A
FEW LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO
CT VALLEY AND SW NH BY SUNSET.
NOTING SW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S COAST UP TO 25-30 KT...WHICH WILL
DIMINISH AS THE WINDS VEER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOTING WIND SHIFT
STARTING TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY AT 17Z. AS WINDS VEER TO W-NW...
WILL START TO SEE WINDS DIMINISH A BIT BEFORE COLD AIR STARTS TO
WORK IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF MIDNIGHT.
A DECENT SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -8C TO -10C. WILL GET CLOSE TO 32F IN THE BOSTON AREA BUT
ARE STILL FORECASTING ABOVE FREEZING AT LOGAN TUE MORNING.
GFS SHOWS CLOUD COVER TRYING TO RETURN TO THE BERKSHIRES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHEAR VORTICITY CENTER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN SKY COVER GRIDS BUT SINCE IT RETREATS TO THE
NORTH TUE...DOES NOT AFFECT MUCH FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE AND
A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
OVERALL...NOT BAD FOR THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE WE EXPECT THE WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S. IT WILL ALSO FEEL CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AN
INLAND TRACK AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE OR EVEN A BIT WEST OF THAT REGION. THE TWO MAIN
THREATS WILL BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. WE WILL DISCUSS ALL THIS BELOW:
1) WIND POTENTIAL:
ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT
ON THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH AND OVERALL NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A 985 TO 990 MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
STRONG THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES WHICH REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT IT REACHES BETWEEN 70 AND
80 KNOTS FOR A TIME THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE FALLS
OF 3 TO 5 MB IN 3 HOURS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ALL THIS SAID...FEEL
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. USUALLY
IN WARM SECTOR EVENTS THE STRONG WINDS ARE ONLY FOR A SHORT
DURATION...MAYBE 2 TO 3 HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE INVERSION WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY HELP TO BRING A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS MAY BE ACROSS INTERIOR RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SURGE TO OVER 60 DEGREES THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
2) MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY
MORNING:
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY
OVERLAP THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...WHICH ROUGHLY OCCURS AROUND 8
OR 9 AM IN THE MORNING. EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE WINDS BECOME AND
TIMING WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF OVER A 2 FOOT STORM
SURGE AT THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAYS. ITS TOO EARLY FOR
ANY HEADLINES...BUT THIS CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL AND A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
3) HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS:
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN. FORTUNATELY...THE
SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER SO WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A QUICK 0.75 TO 1.50
WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT THINK WE
ARE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD THUNDER THOUGH...SO JUST PLANNING ON
MENTIONING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALL THE RAIN
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE
SOME SUNSHINE BREAKOUT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ALL THE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A PATTERN
SHIFT TO THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST
MONTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS A LONG
WAY OFF SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
THE FIRST SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE JUST WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE LOW CAN DEVELOP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO THROW BACK SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP AND HELP PULL THE
MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...ITS 5 DAYS OUT
SO IF THE TROUGH IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN ADVERTISED THE PRECIPITATION
COULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. FOR NOW WILL BE INCLUDING CHANCE
POPS AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE IF FROM THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER FALLS WOULD MAINLY BE SNOW...OR PERHAPS RAIN CHANGING SO TO
SNOW ACROSS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
W-E...MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTED
SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 26 KT AT KFMH. KEPT THIS GOING THROUGH 21Z THEN
WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER TO W-NW.
TONIGHT...MAIN PRECIP PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY 04Z...THOUGH SCT -SHRA
MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 07Z. MAINLY VFR
CIGS...EXCEPT AREAS MVFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TUE...VFR.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BRING
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IN HEAVY
RAIN...BRIEF STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT BUOY 44097 /SE OF BLOCK ISLAND/
AND 10 FEET AT 44008 AT 17Z. THE NANTUCKET FERRY ALSO REPORTED 5
FEET ON THEIR CROSSING AT 15Z. SW WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
BUZZARDS BAY BUOY AND 44008. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN WILL START TO DIMINISH A
BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE.
TONIGHT...WINDS MAY DECREASE BRIEFLY BUT THEN NW WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE EASTERN WATERS...SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THOSE AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT SO THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE AS WELL.
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW 5 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHERNMOST WATERS WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE THE SCA TO BE EXTENDED INTO
TUE IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS OVER 10
FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.
FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.
SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SCA OR PERHAPS EVEN A MARGINAL
AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST. CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT IS LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS
RECORDED ITS FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975.
CURRENTLY...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 34 AND 35 DEGREES ON THE
MORNINGS OF 12/1 AND 12/2...RESPECTIVELY. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32
IN BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LATEST
OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON...WE DID ESTABLISH THE 3RD
EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS FALL ON OCTOBER 18TH.
NOVEMBER WILL BE TOP 10 WARMEST... STATUS THRU 11/28
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE TOP
10 WARMEST IS ASSURED FOR MOST OR ALL OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR
LOCATIONS. RECENT TOP 10 WARMEST WAS 2006...ONE OF THE WARMEST
NOVEMBERS ON RECORD.
BELOW IS THE CURRENT AVG FOR THE MONTH FROM OUR PRELIMINARY CF6...AS
WELL AS THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...THE TOP 10 WARMEST RANKING AND
CLOSE WITH THE 2006 WARMEST NOV RANKING REFERENCE.
BOS 48.9 PLUS 3.7 RANKED A STRONG NUMBER 6 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.4 RANKED NUMBER 5. 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.0 PLUS 4.9 RANKED A SOLID NUMBER 3. 2006 WAS 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.8 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER 4. 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233-
234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...EVT/FRANK
MARINE...EVT/FRANK
CLIMATE...STAFF
